Archive for December, 2009

Here are the analysis and recommendations based on the most recent results of Glaxo Smithkline and NBC. The summaries are below:

NBC:
<blockquote>In placing a fair value on the Ordinary Shares of NBC, we adjusted our earlier forecast for the FY 2009 and parameters to reflect current market developments and based on its latest results. We estimated TO, Earning Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) and PAT for December, 2009. We project a TO of N91.28bn, based on a growth rate of 13.99% over the previous year. We project EBITDA of N7.31bn based on EBITDA margin of 8% and a PAT of N2.94bn based on a PAT Margin of 2.12% and writing back the N1bn insurance claim. We used 1.308bn Ordinary Shares that we expect to be in issue as at December 2009. The Forward Earnings Per Share (FEPS) generates N2.24. We estimated Dividend Per Share (DPS) of N0.90 based on a dividend payout of 40% as we believe the company will increase its historical dividend payout ratio to compensate shareholders for its last year lackluster performance. Applying Enterprise Value EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.85x, a P/E multiple of 12x, we arrived at N20.62 per share using EV/EBITDA multiple and N26.91 per share price using earnings multiple. Applying a weight of 55% on N20.62 and 45% on N26.91, we arrived at N23.45 per share, which is our fair value. The forward earnings yield and dividend yield based on our fair value generate 9.56% and 3.83% respectively. We therefore place a <strong>BUY</strong> on the share price of NBC at the current market price.</blockquote>
NBC -Q3, September 2009 (430)

Glaxo Smithkline:
<blockquote>In placing a fair value on the Ordinary Shares of GlaxoSmith, we maintained our earlier top-line forecast, but adjusted our bottom-line forecast to reflect the company’s improved efficiency. Also, we adjusted our earlier parameters to reflect current market developments and its latest results. We estimated Turnover (TO), Earning Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) and PAT for December, 2009. We maintain our earlier estimate of the TO of N15.04bn as released in our Q1 2009 result. We project EBITDA of N3.06bn based on EBITDA margin of 20% and a PAT of N1.93bn based on a PAT Margin of 12.81%. We used 956.70mn Ordinary Shares that we expect to be in issue as at December 2009. The Forward Earnings Per Share (FEPS) generates N2.02. We estimated Dividend Per Share (DPS) of N0.97 based on a dividend payout of 48.25%. Applying Enterprise Value EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.60x, a P/E multiple of 10.22x, we arrived at N24.29 per share using EV/EBITDA multiple and N20.60 per share price using earnings multiple. Applying a weight of 55% on N24.29 and 45% on N20.60, we arrived at N22.63, which is our fair value. The forward earnings yield and dividend yield based on our fair value generate 8.91% and 4.30% respectively. We therefore place a  <strong>HOLD</strong> on the share price of GlaxoSmith at the current market price.</blockquote>
GlaxoSmithKLINE -Q3, September 2009 (436)

Apologies for the late posts. Here are the weekly reports from FSDH for the weeks ended Dec 18th and 31st and from IBTC for the week ended Dec 18th:

FSDH - Weekly Report - Dec 18th 2009 (296)
FSDH - Weekly Report - Dec 31st 2009 (450)
IBTC - Weekly Report - Dec 18th 2009 (314)

Massive Freebies and Giveaway http://bit.ly/6KASxe #DTbirthday via@DesiznTech

NSE Report for the week ended December 18th 2009

Here is Bank PHB’s statement on the recently announced N387 billion loss for the 3rd quarter:

Here is Vetiva Securities’ analysis of the Q3 results for FCMB. The main issues are shrinking balance sheet and increased provision for loan losses which arent good.

<blockquote>In valuing FCMB, we utilized an Excess Returns Model; assuming a Cost of Equity of 17.00% and Terminal Growth Rate of 4%. A Sensitivity Analysis varying  he Discount Factor and Growth Rate scenarios gave a Fair Value range of N7.89 – N8.84.

Checking our valuation with an Adjusted Gordon Growth Model, we derive a valuation for FCMB at 1.26x December 2009F book, with a Fair Value range of N9.32 – N11.63.  An average of these valuation methodologies gives a Fair Value range of N8.60 – N10.24. It is our expectation that the stock would trade within this range under normal  arket conditions; hence, our “Overweight” rating at current market price of N7.50.</blockquote>

Meristem Securities has prepared a detailed breakdown on the bank statements of results detailing their losses. It is stunning Intercontinental – N328billion, Oceanic Bank – N286billion, Union Bank – N222billion, First Inland – N94.7billion, Spring Bank – N16billion, and Bank PHB – N387billion.

Here is the copy of the memo Oceanic Bank boss, John Eboh sent to the company’s shareholders explaining the stunning N286billion loss:

Here is the CBN statement on the stunning CBN losses released last Friday: PRESS RELEASE ON THIRD QUARTER (Q3) RESULTS RELEASED BY DEPOSIT MONEY BANKS In line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new disclosure standards which are central to the Bank’s ongoing banking sector reforms, all deposit money banks (DMBs) in Nigeria have announced […]

Here is the 2010 version of the anual <a href=”http://www.doingbusiness.org”>Doing Business</a> In West Africa report. It ranked the countries on contract enforcement, ease of setting up a business, administrative bottlenecks etc.

Ghana came in first in the region. Nigeria was second.

Doing Business In West Africa Report 2010 (527)

Here is FSDH’s Analysis of Q3 results of Nigerian Breweries:

<blockquote>Valuation/Analyst Recommendation
In placing a fair value on the Ordinary Shares of NB, we adjusted our earlier forecast for the FY 2009 and parameters to reflect current market developments and its latest results. We estimated TO, Earning Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) and PAT for December, 2009. We project a TO of N166.57bn, based on a growth rate of 14.51% over the previous year. We project EBITDA of N42.51bn based on EBITDA margin of 25.52% and a PAT of N28.26bn based on a PAT Margin of 16.97%. We used 7.56bn Ordinary Shares that we expect to be in issue as at December 2009. The Forward Earnings Per Share (FEPS) generates N3.74. We estimated Dividend Per Share (DPS) of N3.36 based on a dividend payout of 90%. We note that the company already paid an interim dividend of N1.30; we therefore expect a final dividend of N2.44 to end the year. Applying Enterprise Value EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.62x, a P/E multiple of 14.50x, we arrived at N48.42 per share using EV/EBITDA multiple and N54.19 per share price using earnings multiple. Applying a weight of 55% on N48.42 and 45% on N54.19, we arrived at N51.02 which is our fair value. The forward earnings yield and dividend yield based on our fair value generate 7.33% and 6.59% respectively. We therefore maintain our HOLD on the share price of NB at the current market price.</blockquote>

Nigerian Breweries Plc -Q3, 2009 (833)

Stockbroker’s NSE Report For Week Ended Dec 11th 2009


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