Archive for August, 2010

FSDH Securities, IBTC Asset Management and Access Bank have all prepared well-written and thorough Economic Reports for Q2 2010. They are worth reading. They also provided outlooks for the rest of the year. Their outlooks were generally positive.  Here is Access bank’s outlook for the rest of the year:

<blockquote>
- GDP growth to stay above 6% in the near – medium term. NBS recently projected that the economy would grow by 7.74% by end-2010, up from 6.66% recorded in 2009. However, the growth trajectory may be undermined by a downward spiral in oil price at the international market, amid weak demand fundamentals, poor state of infrastructure, sustained inflationary pressures and the possibility of breakdown of FG’s Amnesty Programme.

- Moderate inflationary pressures due to CBN’s AMCON, SME and Power Sector Intervention Funds. Expansionary nature of the budget, moderate increase in commodity prices, announcement effect of salary increase for public sector employees and the proposed removal of petroleum products subsidy may pose additional upside risks to price stability. However, inflation appears to be effectively balanced by the continued underperformance of monetary aggregates, well-anchored inflationary expectations, weak aggregate demand, adequate supply of food and petroleum products, as well as stability in Naira’s exchange rate.

- Naira to stay stable against the US Dollar in the near term. CBN remains the largest supplier of foreign exchange in the economy and with expected increases in sale of FX by oil companies following FG’s peace deal with militants, Naira would further stabilize at current levels. Naira’s outlook remains tied to size of external reserves, FX demand, sustained high crude oil price, as well as development in global economy.

- Domestic interest rate to remain stable at current levels. Decline in statutory returns and the erosion of confidence in the market pose upside risks to a stable interest rate outlook. However, the CBN extension of its guarantee for all interbank transactions from December 2010 to June 30, 2011 will likely stabilize rates at current levels.

- Equities market to experience rebound from recent lows. Improved investors’ optimism and expected positive effect of the AMCON arrangement would likely put key indicators of the equities market in an upward trajectory in the medium term, when the company is expected to buy up banks’ toxic assets.

- The bond market is set to receive a boost. We also anticipate an increase in state and corporate bond issues to better fund longer term projects. Also FG has plans to finance N897 billion of its total deficit worth N1.5 trillion from the local bond issues.

- Banks earnings likely to be suppressed, as competition is expected to reduce profit margin, especially with respect to interest rate spread. A resurgence in massive deposit mobilization drive may distort the relatively stable interest rates in the money market.</blockquote>

Here are the corporate results released on the NSE between August 16th and 27th 2010:

Flour Mills, Union Bank, Benue Cement Company (BCC), Nigerian Breweries, Glaxo Smithkline, Zenith Bank, Nestle, Ashaka Cement, and Cadbury recently released results for their most recent quarters. Here are the analysis of their results by Afrinvest, FSDH, and Vetiva Capital. Afrinvest – Flour Mills Q1 2011Afrinvest – Union Bank 6M 2010 Earnings UpdateFSDH – BCC […]

Afrinvest has prepared a very detailed analysis of the banking sector. It is a top notch report and I recommend that everyone spends some time reading the entire report. From the stats, the 4 top tier banks are First Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank and UBA. ?


Courtesy of Lead Capital NG, here is the NSE report for the week ended August 27th, 2010:
<blockquote>Major equity markets around the globe suffered a downward turn as their various indexes dropped significant points. In our universe of sample equity markets, the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and the S &amp; P 500 all lost points by 1.75%, 1.50% and 1.53% respectively at the end of last week. In Europe, all major indices recorded downward movements. The FTSE, and France CAC 40 decreased by 1.65% and 2.15% respectively, while the German Dax inched up by 1.79%. In the Asia/Pacific region, the Hang Seng, Nikkei and BSE Sensex lost point by 1.65%, 3.64% and 1.21% at the end of the week. Back home, the NSE ASI closed at 24,175.53, recording 4.06% depreciation at the end of the week.

Transactions for the week had the total volume depreciating by 17.61 while value traded depreciated by 18.16%. A turnover of 1.17 billion units of shares valued at N10.41billion, in contrast to a turnover of 1.42 billion units of shares worth N12.72 billion that was recorded two weeks ago.

Volume this week was driven by activity in the shares of NP, FIRSTALUM, VONO, LONGMAN, EVANSMED, IKEJAHOTEL, CRUSADER, LIVESTOCK, SPRINGBAK and NNFM. On the segmented index, NSE-30 decreased by 4.21% to close at 1,006.06, Food and Beverages index decreased by 4.58% to close at 776.09, NSE-Banking decreased by 6.72% to close at 349.43, NSE-Insurance Index decreased 3.71% to close at 168.84 and NSE-Oil &amp; Gas decreased by 2.18% to close at 363.73.

During the period under review, twenty-four (24) stocks recorded price appreciation compared with forty-eight (48) gainers two weeks ago. AP was first on the top gainers’ chart to close with 21.42%, followed by FIRSTALUM with 19.05%, followed by VONO with 11.54%, followed by LONGMAN with 10.08%. Other gainers in the top ten category were EVANSMED with 7.50%, IKEJAHOTEL with 5.98%, CRUSADER with 5.66%, LIVESTOCK with 5.26%, SPRINGBANK with 5% and NNFM with 5%.

On flip side, sixty-one (61) stocks depreciated in price last week compared with thirty-seven (37) decliners two weeks ago. OCEANIC led on the price losers’ table with 17.79%, followed by WEMABANK by 17.02%, PLATINUM by 16.79%, STARCOMMS by 14.50%, CILEASING by 13.85%, INTERCONTINENTAL by 13.51%, GOLDINSURE by 12.28%, FTNCOCOA by 11.94%, RTBRISCOE by 11.86% and STERLNBNK by 11.82%.</blockquote>

Once again, apologies for the late post. Here are the stats and reports from IBTC, FSDH and Lead Capital for the week ended August 13th 2010:

In the past 2 weeks, FCMB, GT Bank, Zenith Bank, Fidelity Bank and Skye Bank released their Q2 and Half-Year results. Here are their financial statements, press releases, and presentations: FCMB H1 2010 Results PresentationFCMB H1 2010 Results Press ReleaseFidelity Bank H1 2010 ResultsFidelity Bank Q2 2010 PresentationFidelity Bank Q2 2010 Press ReleaseFSDH – Company […]

Courtesy of FSDH Securities, IBTC, and Afrinvest, here are the NSE stats and reports for the week ended August 6th 2010: Afrinvest Bi-Weekly Report – Aug 6th 2010IBTC Weekly Market Watch – Aug 6th 2010FSDH Weekly Report – Aug 6th 2010 Lead Capital – Weekly Report – Aug 6th 2010 The NSE reports for June […]

The Asset Management Corporation (AMCON) Bill was <a href=”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-19/nigeria-president-goodluck-jonathan-signs-asset-management-corporation-law.html”>signed into law on July 19th</a>. You can call it the “Bad Bank Bill”. It will create the company (AMCON) that will buy the bad debt from the banks. The hope is that it will stimulate bank lending and ensure the health of the banks.

Here is <a href=”http://www.cenbank.org/”>CBN</a>’s press release after the bill was signed:
<a href=”http://www.cenbank.org/Out/2010/pressrelease/gov/PRESIDENT%20GOODLUCK%20JONATHAN%20SIGNS%20AMCON%20BILL.pdf”>CBN Press Release On The Signing Of The AMCON Bill</a>

<a href=”http://drop.io/hidden/ahltwvu68gm7ccy/asset/dmV0aXZhYmFua2luZ3VwZGF0ZWFtY29ubmlnZXJpYXMtYmFkYmFuay1wZGY%253D”>Vetiva Banking Update – July 2010 – Analysis Of Bad Bank Bill</a>

Courtesy of Lead Capital and FSDH Securities, here is the NSE Report for the week ended July 30th, 2010:

<blockquote>Transactions for the week were higher with total volume and value traded both appreciating by 22.87% and 54.45% respectively. A turnover of 2.31billion units of shares valued at N18.58billion, in contrast to a turnover of 1.88billion shares worth N12.03billion that was recorded two weeks ago.

The Banking subsector was the most active during the week (measured by turnover volume). Volumes traded in this subsector were largely driven by activity in the shares of Skyebank, Aiico, Transcorp, Tourist, Diamondbank, Uba, Firstbank, Guaranty, Zenithbank and Access. On the segmented index, NSE-30 increased by 3.50% to close at 1,075.99, Food and Beverages index increased by 3.30% to close at 844.15, NSE-Banking increased by 4.72% to close at 392.06, NSE-Insurance Index 4.31% to close at 187.52 and NSE-Oil & Gas decreased by 2.35% to close at 377.34.

During the period under review, fifty (50) stocks recorded price appreciation compared with fortyone (41) gainers two weeks ago. FTNCocoa led the top gainers’ chart to close with 16.92%, followed by Unhomes with 16.39%, followed by Aiico with 15.79%, followed by Fcmb with 13.70%. Other gainers in the top ten category were Nigerins with 11.11%, Fidelitybk with 10.48%, Springbnk with 10.00%, Intercont with 9.76%, FirstInlnd with 8.93% and Dangsugar with 8.88%.

On flip side, thirty-six (36) stocks depreciated in price last week compared with thirty-seven (37) decliners two weeks ago. AP led on the price losers’ table with 13.37%, followed by Redstarex by 12.37%, Cileasing by 12.22%, Tourist by 9.56%, Airservice by 9.23%, Rtbriscoe by 9.05%, Bigtreat by 8.57%, Bagco by 6.99%, Japauloil by 6.37% and Mobil by 5.00%.</blockquote>

And here are the stats for the week:
<a href=”http://www.naijalowa.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/results.bmp”><img src=”http://www.naijalowa.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/results.bmp” alt=”” title=”results” /></a>.

<a href=”http://www.naijalowa.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/dividends.bmp”><img src=”http://www.naijalowa.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/dividends.bmp” alt=”” title=”dividends” /></a>.

<a href=”http://www.naijalowa.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/gainers_and_losers.bmp”><img src=”http://www.naijalowa.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/gainers_and_losers.bmp” alt=”” title=”gainers_and_losers” /></a>.

And here are the reports from <a href=”http://www.leadcapital-ng.com/”>Lead Capital</a>, http://www.fsdhsecurities.com/, and <a href=”http://www.ibtcassetmanagement.com/research.html”>IBTC</a>:
<a href=”http://drop.io/hidden/ahltwvu68gm7ccy/asset/aWJ0Yy1tYXJrZXQtd2F0Y2gtMi1hdWd1c3QtMjAxMC1wZGY%253D”>IBTC – Weekly NSE Report – July 30th 2010</a>
<a href=”http://drop.io/hidden/ahltwvu68gm7ccy/asset/ZnNkaC13ZWVrbHktbnNlLXJlcG9ydC1qdWx5LTMwdGgtMjAxMC1wZGY%253D”>FSDH – Weekly NSE Report – July 30th 2010</a>
<a href=”http://drop.io/hidden/ahltwvu68gm7ccy/asset/bGVhZC1jYXBpdGFsLXdlZWtseS1uc2UtcmVwb3J0LWp1bHktMzB0aC0yMDEw%250ALXBkZg%253D%253D”>Lead Capital – Weekly NSE Report – July 30th 2010</a>


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