Archive for September, 2010

The <a href=”http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/”>National Bureau of Statistics</a> recently released the Consumer Price Index for August 2010. You can read the full report below. But here is the summary:

<blockquote>CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: AUGUST 2010
(BASE PERIOD NOVEMBER 2009 = 100)
BRIEF METHODOLOGY:
This edition of the Statistical News contains the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) 2003/2004. The consumption expenditure data were revalued to November 2009 which is the base period for the revised CPI.The May 2003 based and September 1985 based indices are being continued using factors derived from the new CPI. All of these indices will yield the same price change for any commodity group contained in all the series.

A new sub index – Imported Food Index- is available in the revised CPI.A TOTAL of 10534 informants spread across the country provide price data for the compilation of theNew CPI each month. Also, 740 product specifications are priced in each centre for computation of the New CPI. More enquiries relating to the CPI revision can be obtained from ofnwaboku@nigerianstat.gov.ng or kocimo@nigerianstat.gov.ng.

ALL ITEMS INDEX
The Composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 13.7 percent year-on-year in August 2010. This is higher than 13.0 percent recorded in the previous month in the new CPI series. The monthly change of the CPI was 1.8 percent increase when compared with July 2010.  The urban All Items monthly index rose by 1.3 percent while the corresponding rural index recorded 2.1 percent increase when compared with the preceding month. The year-on-year average consumer price level as at August 2010 for Urban and Rural dwellers rose by 10.9 and 15.6 percent respectively. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending August 2010 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 13.5. This was marginally higher than what was recorded by making similar comparison in July 2010. The corresponding 12- month average percent change for urban and rural indices rose by 10.2 and 15.3 respectively.

FOOD INDEX
Average monthly Food prices rose by 2.0 percent in August 2010 when compared with July of same year. The level of the Composite Food Index was higher than the corresponding level a year ago by 15.1 percent. The average annual rate of rise of the index was 14.7 percent for the twelve-month period ending August 2010. The rise in the index was caused mainly by slight increase in the prices of some food items like yam, potatoes, meat, fish, cooking oil, fruits and vegetables.

ALL ITEMS LESS FARM PRODUCE
The “All items less Farm Produce” index which excludes the prices of agricultural products rose by 1.5 percent in August 2010 when compared with July 2010. The increase was due to price rise observed with some pharmaceutical products and household equipments. In the twelve-month to August 2010, the index rose by 12.4 percent while the average annual rate of rise of the index was 11.5 percent for the twelve-month period ending August 2010.</blockquote>

National Bureau of Statistics - CPI - August 2010 (367)

They also released the Revised GDP for 2009 and the Estimates for Q1 and Q2 2010. The GDP economy grew by over 7% in Q2 2010. Here is an excerpt:
<blockquote>On an aggregate basis, the economy when measured by the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 7.69 percent in the second quarter of 2010 as against 7.45 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2009 as shown in Figure 1.

The 0.24 percentage point increase in Real GDP growth observed in the first quarter of 2010 was accounted for by the increase in production in the oil sector and wholesale & retail trade activities in the economy. The nominal GDP for the second quarter of 2010 was estimated at 6,824,477.43 million naira as against the 5,872,694.58 million naira during the corresponding quarter of 2009 thus indicating an increase.

The economy, which can be broken into two broad output groups, that is, Oil and Non-oil sectors, had both sectors witnessing increased output in the second quarter of 2010. The non-oil sector growth was driven by growth in activities recorded in the wholesale & retail trade sector, while the oil sector output increased as a result of the Federal Government’s amnesty and post amnesty development programme for the Niger Delta which restored peace in the area thereby ensuring re-entry/ recommencement of operations and encouraging investments in the sector.</blockquote>

You can download the report below:
National Bureau of Statistics - Revised 2009 GDP and Estimates for Q1-Q2 2010 (1046)

As usual, Vetiva Capital has prepared some very informative reports – September Monthly Economic Note, Economic and Financial Review for 2010 and Analysis of the Banking Sector.

I encourage you to take time to read of these reports. From the report on the banking sector, they broke down the banks into the following tiers:

The September 2010 Monthly Economic Note provides very valuable information on the major economic news so far in the month of September. And the 2010 Economic Review is one of the most detailed analysis of the Nigerian economy that I have come across this year.

Happy Reading!

Vetiva – Banking Update – The Next Chapter

Vetiva – Economic And Financial Review – 2010 Review and Outlook

Vetiva – Monthly Economic Note – September 2010

In August, the Federal Government of Nigeria received the report of the Presidential Task Force given the responsibility of coming up with a road map for reforming the power sector. Here is their executive summary:

Introduction and Executive Summary

The growth, prosperity and national security of any country is critically dependent upon the adequacy of its electricity supply industry. Indeed the link between electricity supply and economic development is such that the health of the industry is a matter of deep and personal concern to all citizens. Nigeria is no exception. Over the past two decades, the stalled expansion of Nigeria’s grid capacity, combined with the high cost of diesel and petrol generation, has crippled the growth of the country’s productive and commercial industries.

It has stifled the creation of the jobs which are urgently needed in a country with a large and rapidly growing population; and the erratic and unpredictable nature of electricity supply has engendered a deep and bitter sense of frustration that is felt across the country as a whole and in its urban centres in particular. Electricity consumers and the citizenry as a whole demand a fundamental reversal of the long and debilitating malaise which has blighted the industry and, in doing so, bridled the tremendous energy and creativity of this great and populous nation. More particularly they demand real and immediate  improvements in service levels.

In response to this demand, the Federal Government will not pretend that the task ahead will be an easy one. But it is determined to root out the canker which lies at the very heart of the industry. More particularly, the Federal Government has stressed the need to return to the task of pursuing  the fundamental changes to the ownership, control and regulation of the sector that have been outlined in the National Electric Power Policy (2002) and enshrined in the Electric Power Sector Reform (EPSR) Act of 2005.

To meet our Vision 20:2020 target of 40,000MW will require investments in power generating capacity alone of at least US$ 3.5 billion per annum for the next 10 years. Correspondingly large investments will also have to be made in the other parts of the supply chain (i.e. the fuel-to-power infrastructure and the power transmission and distribution networks). These sums cannot and will not be funded and directed by the Federal  Government. Rather, central to the development of the sector will be the need to incentivise the private sector to partner with government in this endeavour. At the same time, however, the Federal Government is acutely aware that improvements in service levels cannot wait until the industry has been commercialised.

The Government is, therefore, taking active steps to ensure modest but genuinely realisable improvements in the amount and quality of electricity supplied to customers in all regions of the country. In summary, this Roadmap outlines our plan to accelerate the pace of activity with respect to reforms already mandated under the EPSR Act and, at the same time and in support of this, a renewed drive to improve on short term service delivery.

You can read the abridged and full versions of their reports below:

Presidential Task Force – Roadmap for Power Sector Reform – Full

Presidential Task Force – Roadmap For Power Sector Reform – Summary

Courtesy of FSDH Securities, here are the company results that have been released in the past 3 weeks:

Courtesy of FSDH, Afrinvest, Lead Capital, and IBTC, here are the NSE reports for the week of August 29th through September 3rd 2010.

Afrinvest – Forthnightly Report – Sept 3rd 2010

FSDH – NSE Report – Sept 3rd 2010

IBTC – NSE Report – Sept 3rd 2010

Lead Capital – NSE Report – Sept 3rd 2010

B.J. Rewane of Financial Derivatives Company gave his Monthly Economic Review presentation for the month of September at the Lagos Business School Executive Breakfast Meeting earlier this month and as usual, it was top notch.

Here are some important slides from the presentation. But to get the full benefit, download and review the entire presentation.

Here are the analyses of the recently released results of Nestle PLC, GT Bank, Unilever, Oceanic Bank, Oando and Access Bank by FSDH, Proshare and Vetiva Captial. Happy Reading! FSDH – Company Analysis – Nestle PLC – 2010FSDH – Company Analysis – GTBank – August 2010FSDH – Company Analysis – Unilever 2010Proshare – Results Analysis […]


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