[download id="1138"].

[download id="1139"].

[download id="1140"].

[download id="1141"].

[download id="1142"].

[download id="1143"].

[download id="1144"].

[download id="1145"].

[download id="1146"].

[download id="1147"].

[download id="1148"].

[download id="1149"]

1. The market moved southwards this week, with a cumulative loss of 197 bps.
2. Incessant selling at the bourse continued with no respite throughout the week, leading to losses across board.
3. The likes of Stanbic IBTC, Intercontinental Bank and Wema Bank however recorded varied gains in the banking sector this week, as the top-tier banks shed varied points. This trend may reverse in the coming week as buyers are likely to key in at the current low prices.
4. In the breweries sector, a last day price appreciation in NB led to a 4.6% gain, while Guinness succumbed to bearish pressure, shedding marginal points.
5. Companies in the food and beverages were not spared from the bearish trend prevalent in the market, as the sector failed to record any gain this week. Thus, Flour Mills, NNFM, Dangote Sugar, Nascon and Cadbury all shed points in excess of 3.0% apiece, while other stocks in the sector remained unchanged.

Summary for the week:
<blockquote>
- The NSE All-Share Index closed at 25,036.75 this week.
- Activities in the banking industry were on the uptick this week in spite of the release of some full year numbers that failed to impress many participants. Diamond Bank rallied towards the end of the week, with an 11.0% gain. This was followed by Zenith Bank, FCMB, Intercontinental Bank and Stanbic IBTC, with gains ranging from 5.0% to 7.0% each. On the flip side, Oceanic Bank, Wema Bank, Bank PHB and Spring Bank shed points in excess of 3.0% apiece. First Bank also shed marginal points at the end of the week; this may be the after-effect of its full year results which fell below participants’ expectations.
- In the breweries sector, all traded stocks, with the exception of Champion Breweries, recorded varied gains at the close of the week. NB and International Breweries gathered gains of 4.3% and 6.3% respectively, while institutional purchases firmed up the price of Guinness with a 7.3% gain.
- Fringe players, C & I Leasing and Japaul Oil moved in the same direction with the market index, recording gains of 1.6% and 7.3% respectively to close the week on a positive note.
</blockquote>

<blockquote>
[download id="986"].
[download id="987"].
[download id="988"].
[download id="989"]
</blockquote>

And here are the reports for previous weeks as well.
Reports for the week of April 8th:
<blockquote>
[download id="990"].
[download id="991"].
[download id="992"].
[download id="993"]
</blockquote>

Reports for the week of April 1st:
<blockquote>
[download id="994"].
[download id="995"].
[download id="996"]
</blockquote>

[download id="954"].

Diamond Bank:

[download id="955"].

[download id="956"].

[download id="957"].

[download id="958"].

[download id="959"].

[download id="960"].

[download id="961"].

Fidelity Bank:

[download id="962"].

[download id="967"].

[download id="968"].

FCMB:

[download id="963"].

[download id="965"].

First Bank:

[download id="964"].

[download id="969"].

[download id="970"].

GT Bank:

[download id="971"].

[download id="972"].

[download id="973"].

Stanbic IBTC:

[download id="974"].

[download id="975"].

[download id="976"].

[download id="977"].

Skye Bank:

[download id="978"].

[download id="979"].

Sterling Bank:

[download id="980"].

[download id="981"].

Zenith Bank:

[download id="982"].

[download id="983"].

[download id="984"]</blockquote>

• Nigerian Breweries
• Oando
• Cadbury
• Lafarge WAPCO
• Sovereign Trust
• Flour Mills of Nigeria
• PZ Cussons
• Access Bank
• Diamond Bank
• Nestle
• Fidson Healthcare
• FCMB
• Zenith Bank
• Guinness

[download id="935"].

[download id="936"].

[download id="937"].

[download id="938"].

[download id="939"].

[download id="940"].

[download id="941"].

[download id="942"].

[download id="943"].

[download id="944"].

[download id="945"].

[download id="946"].

[download id="947"].

[download id="948"].

[download id="949"].

[download id="950"].

[download id="951"].

[download id="952"].

[download id="953"]

[download id="855"].
[download id="856"].
[download id="857"]

[download id="826"]

[download id="827"]

[download id="828"]

[download id="829"]

[download id="830"]

[download id="831"]

[download id="832"]

[download id="833"]

[download id="834"]

[download id="835"]

Dangote:

[download id="809"].

[download id="810"]

Oando:

[download id="811"].

[download id="812"]

Nigerian Bottling Company Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- NBC reported an 14.1% increase in turnover from N64.7bn (US$430.2) in Q3 ’09 to N73.8bn (US$490.7m).
- While PBT fell by 38.7% to N1.7bn (US$11.3m), PAT grew by 30.2% to N1.7bn. The growth in PAT could be linked to the minimal tax payment made for the quarter (N5.0m), possibly as a result of capital allowances on new projects granted to the company.
- PBT margins dropped to 2.3% from 4.3% in Q3’09, indicating an increase in operating expenses.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- The company has launched a new juice (Cappy Juice), which is expected to boost the company's profit and market share amid the fierce competition that currently exists in the juice manufacturing space.
- NBC is currently trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 17.7x, which is a discount to its peer average of 18.3x (Afrinvest Research Consumer Goods).
- We forecast FY 2010 Turnover and PBT of N94.7bn (US$629.7) and N2.4bn (US$16.0) respectively, and remain NEUTRAL on the stock pending the release of its full year numbers. We also establish a 6-month price target of N32.94.

[download id="768"]

Mobil (Oil) Nigeria Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Mobil reported a marginal 3.9% dip in turnover from N47.1bn (US$312.9m) in Q3 ‘09 to N45.2bn (US$300.5m).
- The company however an impressive 74.6% increase in PBT from N2.5bn (US$16.6m) to N4.3bn (US$28.6m).Despite a drop in revenue, Mobil continues to maintain an impressive pre-tax margin of 9.5%, thus making it one of the most efficient downstream operators in Nigeria.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- This performance may not be unconnected to Mobil’s ability to book a significant proportion of its profit from non-core business activities (especially real estate). In addition, the recent restructuring and cost-cutting strategies implemented by the company has led to a reduction of nearly 40.0% in labour costs, thus making its supply and distribution more efficient.
- The recent share price performance has firmed up Mobil’s valuation metrics, with the company currently trading at a 2010 forward P/E of 11.7x, a discount to the sector average of 13.4x.
- We remain positive in our FY 2010 outlook on Mobil, with revenue and PBT forecasts of N60.8bn (US$404.0m) and N5.8bn (US$38.5) respectively. We therefore upgrade our rating on Mobil to ACCUMULATE with a 12-month price target of N178.75K, indicating a 16.9% upside potential.
[download id="769"]

Diamond Bank Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Diamond Bank reported gross earnings of N67.0bn (US$445.3m), representing a 20.8% decrease from the N84.6bn (US$562.1m) reported in the corresponding 2009 period.
- The bank however returned to profitability, posting pre and post tax profits of N7.0bn (US$46.5m) and N4.9bn (US$32.4m) in Q3 2010 respectively.
- The reduction in the top line is consistent with the trend that has seen banks struggle with lower yields on assets amid a challenging credit environment.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- Further analysis of the bank’s revenue profile by business segments indicates that the strategic drive towards expanding retail banking business has begun to yield benefits.
- Apart from the 5.2% QoQ reduction in operating expenses, the 52.2% drop in cost of risk had the most impact on profitability. Deposits largely held steady, while risk assets declined by 11.9% over the period.
- On this basis, we forecast a 2010E EPS of N0.49 implying a P/E of 15.2x which is at a premium to its peers. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock, based on our 6M price target of N5.22, representing a 29.4% downside.
[download id="770"]

Access Bank Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Access Bank reported gross earnings of N78.0bn (US$517.6m), representing a 15.2% decrease from the N91.9bn (US$610.4m) reported in the corresponding 2009 period.The bank reported pre-tax profits of N14.1bn for the period under review, as against a loss of N10.6bn reported in the corresponding 2009 period.
- This performance is symptomatic of the overall industry trend that has seen profits soar on the back of significant reduction in costs: loan loss provisions dropped 87.0% YoY from N39.9bn to N5.2bn, while operating costs have consistently dropped by 3.0% and 15.0% between Q1, Q2 and Q3.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- Consequently, there has been a progressive, albeit marginal, drop in its cost-to-income ratio. We have therefore established a 2010 FYE of N97.0bn in gross earnings and N13.6bn in net earnings. This gives an EPS estimate of N0.75 for FY 2010.
- Access Bank currently trades at a trailing P/E of 17.6x, which is at a 16.3% discount to its peers. It however trades at 11.4x 2010E earnings, which represents a slight premium to its peers (trading at an average of 10.8x 2010E earnings).
- Afrinvest Research establishes a 6M price target of N8.04 (a 2.2% downside) and thus remain NEUTRAL on the stock.

[download id="771"]

And for Ashaka Cement:

[download id="774"]

And others from FSDH:

[download id="772"].

[download id="773"]

And from Vetiva:

[download id="775"]

[download id="760"].

[download id="761"].

[download id="762"].

[download id="763"].

[download id="764"].

[download id="765"].

[download id="766"].

[download id="767"]

Diamond Bank:

[download id="741"].

[download id="742"].

[download id="743"]

EcoBank:

[download id="749"]

FCMB:

[download id="750"]

First Bank:

[download id="744"].

[download id="745"].

[download id="746"].

[download id="747"].

[download id="748"].

[download id="752"]

Oceanic Bank:

[download id="751"]

Skye Bank:

[download id="753"].

[download id="754"].

[download id="755"].

[download id="756"]

Sterling Bank:

[download id="757"].

[download id="758"]

UBA:

[download id="759"]

Happy Reading!

Zenith Bank
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Zenith Bank reported gross earnings of N139.6bn, representing a 13.6% decrease from the N161.6bn reported in the corresponding 2009 period.
- Pre-Tax profits grew by 196.3% to N39.2bn from N13.2bn reported in Q3 ’09.
- Continuous improvement across the bank’s key efficiency and operating ratios has fuelled this impressive performance even as top-line growth continues to come under intense pressure.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- We remain confident in the bank’s ability to sustain this new level of efficiency as we do not envisage any significant risk to the bank’s operating model in the near term.
- We believe improved efficiency ratios will be a key driver in growing profits thus enhancing the bank’s valuation indices and creating additional upside potential.
- With a revised top-line forecast of N193.1bn for FYE 2010 and N54.1bn in pre-tax profits, we remain positive in our outlook on the bank.
- We hereby reiterate our LONG-TERM BUY recommendation on the bank and establish a 12-month price target of N16.85K which, at current valuations, translates to a 22.1% upside potential.
[download id="739"]

Unity Bank
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Unity Bank reported a 41.9% increase in gross earnings from N29.3bn (US$192.6m) in Q3 ‘09 to N41.6bn (US$273.3m).
- PAT went up to N10.7bn (US$70.0m) from a loss position of N11.9bn (US$78.2m) recorded in the corresponding 2009 period.
- Net Assets also grew from N7.2bn (US$47.3m) in FY ‘09 to N42.1bn (US$276.6m), following the successful conclusion of the bank’s rights issue.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- This result suggests that Unity Bank has turned the corner, after failing to meet the 10.0% Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) prescribed for banks during the CBN audit in 2009.
- While we have yet to speak with management regarding its current operations and strategic outlook for 2011, we reclassify the bank along with our mid-tier banks, which thus makes it an attractive value proposition.
- With a trading multiple of 3.7x its 2010E earnings, compared to a peer average of 8.2x 2010E for the mid-tier banks, we establish a 6-month price target of N2.23 and place a BUY recommendation on the stock.
[download id="738"]

GT Bank
Q3 ’10 Results:
- GTBank reported gross earnings of 119.8bn, 11.9% down from the N136.1bn recorded in the corresponding 2009 period.
- The company however reported an 82.1% increase in PBT to N39.0bn.
- Afrinvest Research believes this performance is efficiency-driven as the bank has driven down its interest expense by 43.6% to 24.7bn.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- Although we remain positive in our outlook on GTBank, we have reviewed our forecasts on the back of the bank’s decision to adopt a mono-line commercial banking business model, as against a holding company structure whereby accounts of subsidiaries are consolidated.
- Our updated forecasts show that the bank is currently trading at a discount to its peers (based on trailing and forward 2010 numbers) and still has room for further price appreciation.
- We revise our forecast turnover down by 20.0% to N169.2bn and our pre-tax profits up to N51.4bn. We also re-iterate our ACCUMULATE recommendation and expect GTBank’s price to trade between a 12.5% - 17.5% upside over the next 6 - 12 months.
[download id="737"]

UBA
Q3 ’10 Results:
- UBA reported gross earnings of N136.4bn, representing a 6.9% decrease from the N146.4bn reported in the corresponding 2009 period.
- PBT also grew by 225.4% to N16.9bn from a loss of N13.5bn reported in Q3 ‘09.
- The bank’s lending activities however declined by 4.2% from N664.2bn in Q2 ’10 to N636.2bn in Q3 ’10.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- Overall, we remain optimistic on the future performance of the bank. We believe that the recently raised additional capital of N20.0bn will further strengthen the bank’s capital base and also enhance its capital adequacy ratio, currently standing at 17.0%.
- We are however cautious based on this recent performance and the probability of further exceptional item charges.
- Our forecasts also suggest that UBA is currently trading at a 2010E P/E of 20.4x, a significant premium to the top-tier bank average of 12.4x and mid-tier bank average of 8.2x.
- We therefore revise our FY 2010 forecast gross earnings downward to N190.4bn, and PBT to N24.7bn. We also downgrade our recommendation on UBA from an ACCUMULATE to a NEUTRAL/HOLD, as we do not envisage any significant upside potential at current valuation levels in the near term.

[download id="736"]

First Bank of Nigeria Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- First Bank reported gross earnings of N198.0bn, representing a 10.6% decrease from the N177.1bn reported in the corresponding 2009 period. This also falls 3.8% short of our projected N183.9bn.
- The bank reported an impressive pre-tax profit of N40.7bn for the period under review as against a loss of N6.7bn reported in the corresponding 2009 period.
- We would expect that the bank will focus more on driving its operating expenses further down. Operating expenses increased by 17.8% from N71.3bn in 2009 to N83.9bn, despite a 5.3% fall in operating income to N130.3bn from N137.6bn.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- First Bank continues to leverage on its strong brand to grow deposits at a remarkable rate. This growth continues to sustain its strong liquidity ratio, currently at 64.7%.
- We believe First Bank is likely to adopt the holding company structure business model and we remain optimistic that the anticipated new model will support the bank’s growth ambitions and further drive profitability.
- We review our initial top-line forecast of N249.8bn (US$1.7bn) down by 5.0% to N237.3bn (US$1.6bn), while maintaining our initial pre-tax projection of N56.3bn (US$374.1m).
- We also maintain our BUY recommendation on First Bank with a 12-month price target within the range of N16.00 – N16.50 (translating to a 27.3% - 31.2% upside potential at current valuations).
- The bank currently trades at a trailing P/E of 12.3x and forward multiple of 10.7x for FYE 2010; this is a discount to its top-tier peers with both trailing and forward multiples of 17.6x and 13.7x respectively.

[download id="735"]

Sterling Bank Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Sterling Bank reported gross earnings of N23.1bn (US$153.6m), representing a 13.0% decrease from the N26.6bn reported in the corresponding 2009 period.
- The bank however reported pre-tax profits of N5.7bn (US$37.9m) from a loss position of N7.0bn (US$46.5m).
- This performance is very much in line with the industry trend which has seen banks challenged for top line growth.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- We review our gross earnings forecast down by 14.1% to N31.8bn (US$211.4m), as the outlook for credit expansion and yield on interest bearing assets remains subdued.
- We do however expect the impressive cost efficiency gains achieved thus far in 2010 to be maintained and therefore revise our net earnings forecast to N6.7bn (US$44.5m) (+6.0%), implying a 2010E EPS of N0.53.
- Sterling Bank thus trades at 4.2x 2010E earnings, a significant discount to its peers (trading at 9.7x 2010E earnings). We therefore maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

[download id="734"]

Skye Bank Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Skye Bank reported gross earnings of 66.2bn, 17.3% down from the N80.0bn recorded in the corresponding 2009 period.
- The bank however reported a huge boost in pre-tax profits to N10.2bn.
- Afrinvest Research believes that this is very much in tandem with the observed trend in the banking sector where the small universe of high quality borrowers has adversely impacted the capacity of banks for credit expansion, and by extension interest income.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- While we have yet to speak with management regarding these results, we are inclined to believe that the increased focus on cost containment (following the drastic cost cutting of Q4 2009) have had a positive impact on its performance.
- On this basis, we establish a 2010E PAT and EPS forecast of N11.2bn and N0.97 respectively.
- On a valuation basis, the bank is trading at 7.7x its 2010F earnings, which is at a discount to its peer average of 9.7x. We therefore establish a BUY recommendation based on a 6M price target of N9.37 (a 27.0% upside).

[download id="733"]

Oceanic Bank Plc
Q3 ’10 Results:
- Oceanic Bank reported gross earnings of N89.4bn (US$594.7m), 31.1% down from the N129.7bn (US$862.6m) recorded in the corresponding 2009 period.
- The bank reported a pre-tax profit of N13.1bn (US$87.0m) for Q3, 2010 as against a loss of N88.4bn (US$587.8m) recorded in Q3, 2009.
- Our analysis shows that these profits were fuelled by a write-back of N14.5bn (US$96.7m) as it made a net operating loss of N1.5bn (US$9.7m) during the period under review.

FY ’10 Outlook:
- While the brand impairment (reputation damage) suffered by the bank in the wake of the CBN’s intervention on August 14, 2009 limited its ability to grow deposits in the early part of the year, recent performance suggests that it may have regained market confidence with deposits rising to N644.5bn and comparing favourably with the N633.2bn in deposits, pre-intervention (March 2009).
- The bank has also remained a net taker of funds in the inter-bank market, with net deficit of N143.9bn.
- Overall, we remain cautious in our outlook on the bank while watching to see how the sale of bad loans to AMCON could boost its liquidity and help fuel risk asset creation; we hereby put a HOLD recommendation on Oceanic Bank.

[download id="732"]

[download id="691"].

[download id="692"].

[download id="693"].

[download id="694"].

[download id="695"].

[download id="696"]