Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released the Revised GDP for 2011 and estimates for 2012. The executive summary is below:

FSDH recently released their analysis/review of the Nigerian economy for the first half of the year and their outlook for the rest of the year.

Below is their summary. And you can read the full report below.

The National Bureau of Statistics recently released their outlook for the Nigerian economy through 2015. Here is the Executive Summary:

The CPI and Inflation figures for April 2012 were recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics.Inflation rate rose to 12.9% year-on-year in April 2012 while the composite CPI was 0.13% higher than March 2012. The summary of the report is below. You can also download the report below.

The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics recently published the CPI and Inflation figures for January 2012. The summary of the report is below.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria met for their regular meeting on July 25th and 26th 2011. The 3 major decisions made were:

1. To tighten monetary policy by a majority decision of 10 to 2.
2. To raise the MPR by 75 basis points from 8.0 per cent to 8.75 per cent by a majority vote of 8 members in its favour, 1 member favoured 50 basispoint increase while 3 members voted for holding the MPR at 8.0 per cent.
3. To maintain the corridor at +/- 200 basis points around the MPR.

Below is the summary from the communique of the meeting:

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 25th and 26th July, 2011 to review domestic economic conditions during the first half of 2011 and the challenges facing the Nigerian economy against the backdrop of developments in the international economic and financial environment in order to chart the course of monetary policy in the second half of the year.

On the global scene, the Committee noted with concern the enormity of the challenges being faced by the US and euro zone countries as well as the major emerging market economies such as the fiscal position of Brazil, possible real estate bubbles in China and seemingly intractable inflation in  India, which may impact the Nigerian economy adversely through several channels. The economic slowdown and the commodity price inflation in the international economy as well as the rapid increase in prices of some asset classes in some emerging market economies remain serious threats to the global economic recovery. There are continuing widespread threats of inflationary pressures fuelled by the sustained high energy, commodity and food prices in the global economy. Headline inflation in many of the major emerging market economies is now exceeding 6 per cent and is running close to or above central banks’ targets in a number of other larger economies.

The performance of the global financial markets was mixed. Many national currencies in Africa depreciated against the US dollar while in many emerging markets, currencies appreciated vis-à-vis the US dollar during the first half of 2011. Furthermore, most stock markets around the world showed weak recovery during the period due to high inflation, weakening consumer confidence and government finances, particularly in the US and eurozone. The unfolding debt crises in the European periphery could damage confidence and output in the near-term while the US debt and unemployment situation pose grave danger to the international economy given the reserve currency role of the US dollar and the size of the US economy. It is not unlikely that the US will lose its AAA rating and actual default is possible unless a deal can be worked out between the White house and the Congress.

On the domestic scene, the Committee noted that inflationary pressures which were traceable to the high expenditure levels associated with the April 2011 general elections as well as the effects of rising international energy, commodity and food prices had moderated by June 2011. This development was due in part to the tight monetary policy stance of the Bank since September of 2010. However, the Committee observed that the inflation outlook appears uncertain owing to the expected implementation of the new national minimum wage policy and the imminent deregulation of petroleum prices.

Significant injection of liquidity from FAAC in the third quarter coupled with the impact of AMCON recapitalizing intervened banks to the tune of N1.6 trillion will both add to inflationary pressures. The Committee welcomed the favorable growth projections but cautioned that the current security challenges, infrastructural bottlenecks and the uncertainty in the international economy as well as fiscal developments could undermine investors’ confidence and output growth in the near term.

The Committee expressed serious concerns about the continued sluggish growth of credit to the private sector during the first half of the year which is attributed, among other factors, to the heightened credit risk in the real economy as a result of the persisting structural problems occasioned by the inadequate power supply and critical infrastructure deficit. It also observed that the lending rates of deposit money banks (DMBs) remained relatively high.

You can download the full communique below:

MPC JULY COMMUNIQUE NO 77 (396)

And here is the communique from the June meeting:

CBN - MPC Communique No 76 Issued on May 24 2011 (388)

Before the July 25th and 26th meeting, Afrinvest, Access Bank, and Vetiva had released preview documents of the Central Bank’s decision, you can read them below:

Monetary Policy Committe Decision Preview - Access Bank - July 25th 2011 (433).

Monetary Policy Committee Communique - Afrinvest - July 26th 2011 (406).

Monetary Policy Committee Decision Preview - July 2011 - Vetiva (430)

Last Friday,the licenses for Afribank, Bank PHB, and Spring Bank were revoked and their assets and liabilities have been transferred to the newly incorporated Bridge Banks:

1. Mainstreet Bank Limited has assumed the assets and liabilities of Afribank Nigeria Plc.

2. Keystone Bank Limited has assumed the assets and liabilities of Bank PHB Plc.

3. Enterprise Bank Limited has assumed the assets and liabilities of Spring Bank Plc.

Courtesy of FSDH, Afrinvest, and Lead Capital, here are the NSE reports and stats for the week ended July 15th 2011:

  1. The market moved southwards this week, with a cumulative loss of 197 bps.
  2. Incessant selling at the bourse continued with no respite throughout the week, leading to losses across board.
  3. The likes of Stanbic IBTC, Intercontinental Bank and Wema Bank however recorded varied gains in the banking sector this week, as the top-tier banks shed varied points. This trend may reverse in the coming week as buyers are likely to key in at the current low prices.
  4. In the breweries sector, a last day price appreciation in NB led to a 4.6% gain, while Guinness succumbed to bearish pressure, shedding marginal points.
  5. Companies in the food and beverages were not spared from the bearish trend prevalent in the market, as the sector failed to record any gain this week. Thus, Flour Mills, NNFM, Dangote Sugar, Nascon and Cadbury all shed points in excess of 3.0% apiece, while other stocks in the sector remained unchanged.

Courtesy of the <a href=”http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/”>Nigerian Bureau of Statistics</a>, here is the Consumer Price Index for May 2011.
<blockquote>
<p style=”text-align: center;”>CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: MAY 2011
(BASE PERIOD NOVEMBER 2009 = 100)
BRIEF METHODOLOGY:</p>
<p style=”text-align: left;”>This edition of the Statistical News contains the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) 2003/2004.  The consumption expenditure data were revalued to November 2009 which is the base period for the revised CPI. The May 2003 based and September 1985 based indices are being continued using factors derived from the new CPI. All of these indices will yield the same price change for any commodity group contained in all the series.  A new sub index – Imported Food Index- is available in the revised CPI.</p>
A TOTAL of 10534 informants spread across the country provide price data for the compilation of the New CPI each month.  Also, 740 product specifications are priced in each centre for computation of the New CPI. For more enquiries relating to the CPI revision refer to  kocimo@nigerianstat.gov.ng  or   kocimo@yahoo.com

ALL ITEMS INDEX
The Composite Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 12.4 percent year-on-year in May 2011. This is higher than 11.3 percent recorded in the previous month in the new CPI series.  The monthly change of the CPI was 0.91 percent increase when compared with April 2011. The urban All Items monthly index rose by 0.2 percent while the corresponding rural index rose by 1.5 percent when compared with the preceding month.

The year-on-year average consumer price level as at May 2011 for Urban and Rural dwellers rose by 11.5 and 13.0 percent respectively. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending May 2011 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 12.6. This was slightly lower than the figure for the preceding month.  The corresponding 12- month average percent change  for urban and rural indices rose by 10.2 and 14.5 respectively.

FOOD INDEX
Average monthly food prices declined by 0.3 percent in May 2011 when compared with April 2011 figure. The level of the Composite Food Index was higher than the corresponding level a year ago by 12.2 percent.  The average annual rate of rise of the index was 13.2 percent for the twelve-month period ending May 2011. The change in the month-on-month index was caused mainly by downward movement of the prices of some food items like vegetables, fruits and cereals.

ALL ITEMS LESS FARM PRODUCE
The “All items less Farm Produce” index which excludes the prices of agricultural products increased by 0.9 percent in May 2011 when compared with April 2011.   The increase was mainly on some household items, building materials, rents, diesel and kerosene. In the twelve-month to May 2011, the index rose by 13.0 percent while the average annual rate of rise of the index was 12.2 percent for the twelve-month period ending May 2011.</blockquote>

The full report for this May 2011 and prior months can be downloaded below:
Nigeria Bureau of Statistics - May 2011 Consumer Price Index (657).
National Bureau of Statistics - Consumer Price Index For April 2011 (469).
National Bureau of Statistics - Inflation Data Feb 2011 (417).
National Bureau of Statistics - Inflation Data - Jan 2011 (419)

Below is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation by BJ Rewane at the Lagos Business School. Presentations for the prior months are also below.

June 2011:
LBS Executive Breakfast June 2011 (596).

Prior Months:
LBS Executive Breakfast May 2011 (533).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 1 (545).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 2 (508).
LBS Executive Breakfast March 2011 (522).
LBS Executive Breakfast February 2011 (439)

Here are outlooks from Afrinvest and Vetiva for the Pharmaceutical, Cement and Banking sectors of the Nigerian economy for 2011:

Afrinvest 2010 Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Sector Update (1484).

Vetiva Research - Cement Sector Study (4757).

Vetiva Research - Nigerian Banking Sector Update - January 2011 (741)

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This blog is dedicated to informing users on the latest business and economic news news from the CBN and Nigerian Stock Exchange. Happy reading!

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