Archive for the ‘Market Analysis’ Category

Courtesy of FSDH and TRW Brokers, here are the stats for stock performance for 2009. It wasnt a pretty picture.

Here is <a href=”http://www.accessbankplc.com”>Access Bank</a>’s Macroeconomic Update for October 2009:
Access Bank - Macroeconomic Update - October 2009 (66)

The <a href=”http://www.imf.org”>IMF</a> yesterday, released the new <a href=”http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm”>World Economic Forecasts</a>. Economic growth in Nigeria is expected to slow to 2.9% this year from 7% last year. It should rise to 5% in 2010. Consumer prices are expected to increase by 12% in 2009 and 8.8% in 2010.
A major reason for the slowing of economic growth is the fall in financial flows from oil exports. You can download the report below.

FSDH Securities has prepared a thorough analysis of the Nigerian Stock Exchange performance in the last quarter and on what to expect in this 2nd quarter. Below is their summary:

Courtesy of FSDH and Forte Assets, here is the market report for the week ended Friday, April 17th:

FSDH Securities recently released their 2009 outlook. I must commend them for a well written analysis of the economy. You can download it here:

FSDH 2009 Outlook (179)

Their recommendation is:

While we advise investors to take medium to long term positions in the market, we observe that there are opportunities for short-term trading in the market. In a period like this; full of uncertainties, we strongly advise investors in the capital market to invest only in stocks of companies with sound management and good products that can generate and sustain its cashflows. Such companies can increase investments in the long run. Once recovery starts and the level of confidence in the economy improves, both domestic and international, stocks may not trade at the current prices for many years to come.

The highlights of the document are:

Courtesy of Forte Assets, here is the market report for the week ended April 3rd 2009:

Earlier this week, the Vanguard Newspapers held a forum with some distinguished guests to discuss the issue of the falling value of the Naira. Experts in attendance included: former Minister of Finance, Dr. Kalu Idika Kalu; Director, Lagos Business School, Professor Pat Utomi who moderated the event; former Economic Planning Minister, Senator Sanusi Daggash; Mr. Jimoh Ibrahim, Chairman, NICON Group; NACCIMA President, Mr. Simeon Okolo; Mr. Opeyemi Agbaje of the Lagos Business School and Vanguard columnists, Les Leba and Dr. Dele Sobowale, among others.

In my opinion, Dr Idika Kalu hit the nail on the head – the main problem is the fact that NIgeria is too dependent on the banking industry which makes up over 50% of the stock exchange and is currently the major employer of labor outside of the government. What we need is a strong manufacturing economy.

And I very very much disagree with Jimoh Ibrahim who is suggesting that the CBN prints more Naira. That is a bunch of bull. It is nonsense. Printing more Naira will increase the risk of inflation and will sink the country into a recession. It can also result in the downgrading of our credit ratings which will affect the flow of foreign investments.

Here are the market reports from Forte Assets and FSDH for the week ended March 6th:

Below is Afrinvest’s bi-weekly market report for the period ended Feb 27th.

[Download not found]

Also below is FSDH’s analysis of Guiness’ Q2 2008 results.

[Download not found]

While I have been supportive of the CBN’s “interventions” in the stock exchange, I think at the end of the day, they might have to relax the regulations on the FOREX tradings.

The Naira has lost clost to 50% of its value in the last 4 months.

My main reason for the need for relaxing of the regulations is its effects on the banks. Banks make up a huge chunk of the Nigerian Stock Exchange and are a major employer of labour. When you think of it, banks as a whole, will be the second largest employer of labor after the government (federal and state).

Although this document is somewhat old and outdated, I think it will help in giving a good picture of which banks are in relatively good shape based on the report from PWC posted earlier:


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This blog is dedicated to informing users on the latest business and economic news news from the CBN and Nigerian Stock Exchange. Happy reading!

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