Archive for the ‘Market Analysis’ Category

Below is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation by BJ Rewane at the Lagos Business School. Presentations for the prior months are also below.

June 2011:
LBS Executive Breakfast June 2011 (619).

Prior Months:
LBS Executive Breakfast May 2011 (548).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 1 (565).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 2 (524).
LBS Executive Breakfast March 2011 (543).
LBS Executive Breakfast February 2011 (455)

The week ended with the NSE All-Share Index inching up by 203bps.

The banking sector recorded fairly matched gains and losses this week. Profit taking mid-week curbed the rally on UBA and Oceanic Bank, subsequently leading to marginal gains of 3.4% and 1.5% respectively. Mid-tier banks, Skye Bank, Access Bank and FCMB also inched up marginally with gains of 8.7%, 4.8% and 4.0% respectively.

Bullish sentiments dominated the breweries sector throughout the week as most stocks in the sector recorded varied gains. Guinness traded mostly at top price throughout the week but closed flat due to a dearth of volumes. NB recorded marginal gains, while International Breweries gathered 27.2% cumulatively.

Activities in building sector were on the upbeat this week as Lafarge Wapco topped the gainers’ list in the sector. This was closely followed by Dangote Cement and CCNN with gains of 5.0% and 4.9% respectively, while Ashaka Cement recorded a 3.3% mark-up in its share price.

Afrinvest Weekly Market Update - May 13th 2011 (439).

Afrinvest Weekly Update 13th May 2011 (452).

NSE Weekly Report - IBTC - May 13th 2011 (480).

NSE Weekly Report - Lead Capital - May 13th 2011 (444).

NSE Weekly Report - FSDH - May 13th 2011 (461)

Below is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation given by B.J Belgore for October 2010. As usual, it is a very very detailed and informative presentation. You will do well to read the entire thing.

LBS Executive Breakfast Session - October 2010 (539)

As usual, Vetiva Capital has prepared some very informative reports – September Monthly Economic Note, Economic and Financial Review for 2010 and Analysis of the Banking Sector.

I encourage you to take time to read of these reports. From the report on the banking sector, they broke down the banks into the following tiers:

The September 2010 Monthly Economic Note provides very valuable information on the major economic news so far in the month of September. And the 2010 Economic Review is one of the most detailed analysis of the Nigerian economy that I have come across this year.

Happy Reading!

Vetiva – Banking Update – The Next Chapter

Vetiva – Economic And Financial Review – 2010 Review and Outlook

Vetiva – Monthly Economic Note – September 2010

Courtesy of FSDH Securities, here are the company results that have been released in the past 3 weeks:

B.J. Rewane of Financial Derivatives Company gave his Monthly Economic Review presentation for the month of September at the Lagos Business School Executive Breakfast Meeting earlier this month and as usual, it was top notch.

Here are some important slides from the presentation. But to get the full benefit, download and review the entire presentation.

FSDH Securities, IBTC Asset Management and Access Bank have all prepared well-written and thorough Economic Reports for Q2 2010. They are worth reading. They also provided outlooks for the rest of the year. Their outlooks were generally positive.  Here is Access bank’s outlook for the rest of the year:

<blockquote>
– GDP growth to stay above 6% in the near – medium term. NBS recently projected that the economy would grow by 7.74% by end-2010, up from 6.66% recorded in 2009. However, the growth trajectory may be undermined by a downward spiral in oil price at the international market, amid weak demand fundamentals, poor state of infrastructure, sustained inflationary pressures and the possibility of breakdown of FG’s Amnesty Programme.

- Moderate inflationary pressures due to CBN’s AMCON, SME and Power Sector Intervention Funds. Expansionary nature of the budget, moderate increase in commodity prices, announcement effect of salary increase for public sector employees and the proposed removal of petroleum products subsidy may pose additional upside risks to price stability. However, inflation appears to be effectively balanced by the continued underperformance of monetary aggregates, well-anchored inflationary expectations, weak aggregate demand, adequate supply of food and petroleum products, as well as stability in Naira’s exchange rate.

- Naira to stay stable against the US Dollar in the near term. CBN remains the largest supplier of foreign exchange in the economy and with expected increases in sale of FX by oil companies following FG’s peace deal with militants, Naira would further stabilize at current levels. Naira’s outlook remains tied to size of external reserves, FX demand, sustained high crude oil price, as well as development in global economy.

- Domestic interest rate to remain stable at current levels. Decline in statutory returns and the erosion of confidence in the market pose upside risks to a stable interest rate outlook. However, the CBN extension of its guarantee for all interbank transactions from December 2010 to June 30, 2011 will likely stabilize rates at current levels.

- Equities market to experience rebound from recent lows. Improved investors’ optimism and expected positive effect of the AMCON arrangement would likely put key indicators of the equities market in an upward trajectory in the medium term, when the company is expected to buy up banks’ toxic assets.

- The bond market is set to receive a boost. We also anticipate an increase in state and corporate bond issues to better fund longer term projects. Also FG has plans to finance N897 billion of its total deficit worth N1.5 trillion from the local bond issues.

- Banks earnings likely to be suppressed, as competition is expected to reduce profit margin, especially with respect to interest rate spread. A resurgence in massive deposit mobilization drive may distort the relatively stable interest rates in the money market.</blockquote>

Afrinvest has prepared a very detailed analysis of the banking sector. It is a top notch report and I recommend that everyone spends some time reading the entire report. From the stats, the 4 top tier banks are First Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank and UBA. ?


Once again, apologies for the late post. Here are the stats and reports from IBTC, FSDH and Lead Capital for the week ended August 13th 2010:

Courtesy of FSDH Securities, here is the NSE report for the week ended July 23rd 2010: Money and Fixed Income marketsThe money market was tight as a result of about N105bn that left the system through Federal Government Bond auction. Consequently, inter-bank rates inched up at the end of the week. Available data showed that […]

Here are the major points from the recently released Central Bank of Nigeria’s April 2010 Economic Report.: Moderation in the major monetary aggregates in April 2010 General decline in banks’ deposits and lending rates Oil and non-oil receipts were than budgeted Inflation rate was at 12.5% at the end of April 2010 Oil receipts accounted […]

Here are the NSE reports and stats for the week ended July 16th 2010:


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This blog is dedicated to informing users on the latest business and economic news news from the CBN and Nigerian Stock Exchange. Happy reading!

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