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Courtesy of FSDH, Afrinvest, Lead Capital, and IBTC, here are the NSE reports for the week of August 29th through September 3rd 2010.
Afrinvest – Forthnightly Report – Sept 3rd 2010
FSDH – NSE Report – Sept 3rd 2010
FSDH Securities, IBTC Asset Management and Access Bank have all prepared well-written and thorough Economic Reports for Q2 2010. They are worth reading. They also provided outlooks for the rest of the year. Their outlooks were generally positive. Here is Access bank’s outlook for the rest of the year:
<blockquote>
- GDP growth to stay above 6% in the near – medium term. NBS recently projected that the economy would grow by 7.74% by end-2010, up from 6.66% recorded in 2009. However, the growth trajectory may be undermined by a downward spiral in oil price at the international market, amid weak demand fundamentals, poor state of infrastructure, sustained inflationary pressures and the possibility of breakdown of FG’s Amnesty Programme.
- Moderate inflationary pressures due to CBN’s AMCON, SME and Power Sector Intervention Funds. Expansionary nature of the budget, moderate increase in commodity prices, announcement effect of salary increase for public sector employees and the proposed removal of petroleum products subsidy may pose additional upside risks to price stability. However, inflation appears to be effectively balanced by the continued underperformance of monetary aggregates, well-anchored inflationary expectations, weak aggregate demand, adequate supply of food and petroleum products, as well as stability in Naira’s exchange rate.
- Naira to stay stable against the US Dollar in the near term. CBN remains the largest supplier of foreign exchange in the economy and with expected increases in sale of FX by oil companies following FG’s peace deal with militants, Naira would further stabilize at current levels. Naira’s outlook remains tied to size of external reserves, FX demand, sustained high crude oil price, as well as development in global economy.
- Domestic interest rate to remain stable at current levels. Decline in statutory returns and the erosion of confidence in the market pose upside risks to a stable interest rate outlook. However, the CBN extension of its guarantee for all interbank transactions from December 2010 to June 30, 2011 will likely stabilize rates at current levels.
- Equities market to experience rebound from recent lows. Improved investors’ optimism and expected positive effect of the AMCON arrangement would likely put key indicators of the equities market in an upward trajectory in the medium term, when the company is expected to buy up banks’ toxic assets.
- The bond market is set to receive a boost. We also anticipate an increase in state and corporate bond issues to better fund longer term projects. Also FG has plans to finance N897 billion of its total deficit worth N1.5 trillion from the local bond issues.
- Banks earnings likely to be suppressed, as competition is expected to reduce profit margin, especially with respect to interest rate spread. A resurgence in massive deposit mobilization drive may distort the relatively stable interest rates in the money market.</blockquote>
Flour Mills, Union Bank, Benue Cement Company (BCC), Nigerian Breweries, Glaxo Smithkline, Zenith Bank, Nestle, Ashaka Cement, and Cadbury recently released results for their most recent quarters. Here are the analysis of their results by Afrinvest, FSDH, and Vetiva Capital. Afrinvest – Flour Mills Q1 2011Afrinvest – Union Bank 6M 2010 Earnings UpdateFSDH – BCC [...]
In: Banks|business|companyanalysis|Market Analysis|special reports
31 Aug 2010Afrinvest has prepared a very detailed analysis of the banking sector. It is a top notch report and I recommend that everyone spends some time reading the entire report. From the stats, the 4 top tier banks are First Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank and UBA. ?
Courtesy of Lead Capital NG, here is the NSE report for the week ended August 27th, 2010:
<blockquote>Major equity markets around the globe suffered a downward turn as their various indexes dropped significant points. In our universe of sample equity markets, the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and the S & P 500 all lost points by 1.75%, 1.50% and 1.53% respectively at the end of last week. In Europe, all major indices recorded downward movements. The FTSE, and France CAC 40 decreased by 1.65% and 2.15% respectively, while the German Dax inched up by 1.79%. In the Asia/Pacific region, the Hang Seng, Nikkei and BSE Sensex lost point by 1.65%, 3.64% and 1.21% at the end of the week. Back home, the NSE ASI closed at 24,175.53, recording 4.06% depreciation at the end of the week.
Transactions for the week had the total volume depreciating by 17.61 while value traded depreciated by 18.16%. A turnover of 1.17 billion units of shares valued at N10.41billion, in contrast to a turnover of 1.42 billion units of shares worth N12.72 billion that was recorded two weeks ago.
Volume this week was driven by activity in the shares of NP, FIRSTALUM, VONO, LONGMAN, EVANSMED, IKEJAHOTEL, CRUSADER, LIVESTOCK, SPRINGBAK and NNFM. On the segmented index, NSE-30 decreased by 4.21% to close at 1,006.06, Food and Beverages index decreased by 4.58% to close at 776.09, NSE-Banking decreased by 6.72% to close at 349.43, NSE-Insurance Index decreased 3.71% to close at 168.84 and NSE-Oil & Gas decreased by 2.18% to close at 363.73.
During the period under review, twenty-four (24) stocks recorded price appreciation compared with forty-eight (48) gainers two weeks ago. AP was first on the top gainers’ chart to close with 21.42%, followed by FIRSTALUM with 19.05%, followed by VONO with 11.54%, followed by LONGMAN with 10.08%. Other gainers in the top ten category were EVANSMED with 7.50%, IKEJAHOTEL with 5.98%, CRUSADER with 5.66%, LIVESTOCK with 5.26%, SPRINGBANK with 5% and NNFM with 5%.
On flip side, sixty-one (61) stocks depreciated in price last week compared with thirty-seven (37) decliners two weeks ago. OCEANIC led on the price losers’ table with 17.79%, followed by WEMABANK by 17.02%, PLATINUM by 16.79%, STARCOMMS by 14.50%, CILEASING by 13.85%, INTERCONTINENTAL by 13.51%, GOLDINSURE by 12.28%, FTNCOCOA by 11.94%, RTBRISCOE by 11.86% and STERLNBNK by 11.82%.</blockquote>
In: special reports
1 Jun 2010Here are the Q1 2010 reviews for the NSE from Access Bank and Afrinvest. You can read the excerpts below:
Afrinvest Q1 2010 Market Review (217).
Access - Nigerian Economic Review Q1 2010 (351)
Here is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation given by B.J. Rewane at the Lagos Business School Executive Breakfast Meeting.
LBS April 2010 (295)In: CBN|News|special reports
23 Apr 2010The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN held their monthly meeting on April 15th. Afrinvest prepared an analysis of this communique. Read below and you can also download the report below too.
1. MPR is still retained at 6.0%, with an asymmetric corridor of +2.0% and -5.0%;
2. Technical Committee’s recommendations on the injection of the N500.0bn financing facility for the emergency power projects for industrial clusters, as well as modalities regarding the refinancing/ restructuring of banks’ exposures to the manufacturing sector and SMEs approved;
3. Banks required to submit their risk-based interest rate pricing models on a monthly basis. Loan pricing should henceforth be stated at a fixed spread above MPR and adjusted along with MPR movements;
4. Complementary policies being put in place by the CBN Board endorsed, including the revised guidelines for loan loss provisioning, the N200.0bn guarantee for real sector lending and regulations governing margin lending;
5. CBN to continue its efforts towards the expedited passage of the AMCON Bill and its speedy implementation.
Key Domestic Macroeconomic Statistics
Provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that in Q1 2010, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.68%, largely driven by the non-oil sector. Overall GDP for 2010 is however projected at 7.53%, with the non-oil sector still expected to be the main driver.
The year-on-year inflation fell to 11.8% in March 2010, from 12.3% in February 2010. This could be attributed to numerous factors, including the on-going money contraction, delays in the passage of the 2010 federal budget and the improvement in the supply of petroleum products.
The MPC re-stated its position that the risk of inflationary pressure in the near-to-medium term remains real; it however asserted that it will continue to monitor price developments to facilitate an enabling environment for sustainable growth and employment.
Implications
Afrinvest Research re-iterates its position that the N500.0bn facility for emergency power projects is a step in the right direction. We also believe that the ongoing review of regulations governing margin lending as well as prudential guidelines on loan loss provisioning will improve transparency and corporate governance in the banking sector. It will also help the banks to more efficiently hedge against risks.
Retail lending rates have remained stubbornly high despite the significant fall in interbank rates, deposit rates and the Standard Deposit Facility rate. This has therefore resulted in a wide spread between lending and deposit rates. Banks are still unwilling to lend to the real sector, given their rather reticent approach to the creation of new risk assets. The MPC is therefore trying to establish a proper transmission mechanism from policy rate adjustments to market (interest) rates and, hopefully, channel funds from the banks to the real sector.
Afrinvest Research is of the opinion that though banks may still be unwilling to resume lending, they will however be forced to do so over time as they come under increasing pressure from a number of angles; coupled with recent CBN measures taken to encourage lending, shareholders would also begin to press for better returns than what currently obtains (deposits with the CBN at a low rate and money market securities with low yields), thus mounting pressure on the banks to resume lending. We also believe that the sector will witness even more intense competition amongst operators, which would naturally force them to resume lending as they fight for turf.
Central Bank of Nigeria Communiqué No. 69 (159)Below are the NSE reports for the Month of March and for Q1 2010. Also below is the stats of the market performance:
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In: special reports
8 Mar 2010Download Proshare’s February Capital Market Report below. Here is an excerpt from the executive summary:
In: special reports
8 Mar 2010Below is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation (by B.J. Rewane) from the Lagos Business School’s executive breakfast session.
LBS Executive Breakfast Session - March 2010 - Pt 1 - BJ Rewane (217).
LBS Executive Breakfast Session - March 2010 - Pt 2 - BJ Rewane (185)
In: special reports
4 Mar 2010Asset and Resource Management (ARM) Company recently released their report on the performance of the Nigerian economy in 2009 and the outlook for 2010. The Executive summary is below. You can also download the full report after the summary:
This blog is dedicated to informing users on the latest business and economic news news from the CBN and Nigerian Stock Exchange. Happy reading!
