Communique From the 71st Monetary Policy Committee Meeting of the CBN – July 5th 2010

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23 Jul 2010

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria met on July 5th to  review  domestic economic conditions during the first half of 2010 and the challenges facing the Nigerian economy  against  the  backdrop  of  developments  in  the  international  economic  and financial  environments in  order  to  reassess  the  options  for  monetary  policy  for  the remainder of the year. The 2 major decisions from the meeting were:
1.   No  changes  were made  to  the  current  policy  stance; the  MPR  should  remain unchanged at 6.0 per cent; and
2.  The asymmetric corridor of 200 basis points above and 500 basis points below the MPR, respectively, are to be retained.

Some notes from the minutes for the meeting include:

  1. Provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 7.23 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 up from 4.50 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2009. 
  2. GDP was projected to grow by 7.68, 7.76  and  8.13  per  cent  in  the  second,  third  and  fourth quarters of  2010,  respectively.
  3. Overall  GDP  growth  for  2010  is  projected  at  7.74  per  cent  which  is  higher  than  the revised  figure    of 6.66  per  cent  recorded  in  2009.   
  4. The non-oil sector is expected to remain the main driver of overall growth, with agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, and services contributing 2.49, 2.03 and 2.11 per cent, respectively. 
  5. The weighted average savings rate dropped marginally to 2.92 per cent in May 2010 from 3.36 per cent in December 2009.
  6. The consolidated deposit rates declined to 3.30  per  cent  in  May  2010  from  6.13  per  cent  in  December  2009.  Thus,  the  spread between the average maximum lending rate and the consolidated deposit rate widened to 19.27  per  cent  in  May  2010  from  17.34  per  cent  in  December, 2009.   
  7. The Committee noted that the key policy challenges remained the negative growth in money supply and private sector credit as well as the subsisting high lending rates in the face of declining inter-bank rates.  
  8. The Nigerian capital market is still showing some signs of recovery. The All-Share Index (ASI)  increased  from  20,827.17  at  end-December  2009 to  25,554.35  as  at  23rd June, 2010, or by 20.70 per cent.
  9. Market capitalization (MC)—equities only, increased by 24.9 per cent from N4.98trillion to N6.28 trillion over the same period. The number of deals, volume  and  value  of  shares  traded  increased  by  16.34,  19.23 and 100.00  per  cent, respectively. The increase in ASI and MC was principally due to share price increases in the Banking, Food & Beverage and Oil/Gas sectors. 
  10. The Committee welcomed the continuing improvement in the stock market, and noted the potentials for further recovery given the passage of the harmonized Asset Management Corporation (AMCON) Bill by both chambers of the National Assembly.  
  11. The Gross external reserves stood at US$37.63 billion on 23 rd June, 2010 representing a decrease of US$1.19 billion or 3.06 per cent when compared with the level of US$38.82 billion as at 31st   May 2010.   
  12. The  Committee,  however,  noted that the  current  external reserves level is still adequate as it would finance 16 months of import, compared to the internationally  recommended  benchmark  of  3  months  of import  cover  for  a  country’s external reserves. 
  13. The Committee’s Considerations Against  the  backdrop  of  the  foregoing,  the  MPC  noted with  satisfaction  the  continued macroeconomic  stability.

You can download the minutes of the last MPC meeting below:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – July 5th 2010

The minutes of the MPC meeting of May 2010 can also be downloaded here:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – May 2010

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