The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria met on July 5th to review domestic economic conditions during the first half of 2010 and the challenges facing the Nigerian economy against the backdrop of developments in the international economic and financial environments in order to reassess the options for monetary policy for the remainder of the year. The 2 major decisions from the meeting were:
1. No changes were made to the current policy stance; the MPR should remain unchanged at 6.0 per cent; and
2. The asymmetric corridor of 200 basis points above and 500 basis points below the MPR, respectively, are to be retained.
Some notes from the minutes for the meeting include:
- Provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 7.23 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 up from 4.50 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2009.
- GDP was projected to grow by 7.68, 7.76 and 8.13 per cent in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2010, respectively.
- Overall GDP growth for 2010 is projected at 7.74 per cent which is higher than the revised figure of 6.66 per cent recorded in 2009.
- The non-oil sector is expected to remain the main driver of overall growth, with agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, and services contributing 2.49, 2.03 and 2.11 per cent, respectively.
- The weighted average savings rate dropped marginally to 2.92 per cent in May 2010 from 3.36 per cent in December 2009.
- The consolidated deposit rates declined to 3.30 per cent in May 2010 from 6.13 per cent in December 2009. Thus, the spread between the average maximum lending rate and the consolidated deposit rate widened to 19.27 per cent in May 2010 from 17.34 per cent in December, 2009.
- The Committee noted that the key policy challenges remained the negative growth in money supply and private sector credit as well as the subsisting high lending rates in the face of declining inter-bank rates.
- The Nigerian capital market is still showing some signs of recovery. The All-Share Index (ASI) increased from 20,827.17 at end-December 2009 to 25,554.35 as at 23rd June, 2010, or by 20.70 per cent.
- Market capitalization (MC)—equities only, increased by 24.9 per cent from N4.98trillion to N6.28 trillion over the same period. The number of deals, volume and value of shares traded increased by 16.34, 19.23 and 100.00 per cent, respectively. The increase in ASI and MC was principally due to share price increases in the Banking, Food & Beverage and Oil/Gas sectors.
- The Committee welcomed the continuing improvement in the stock market, and noted the potentials for further recovery given the passage of the harmonized Asset Management Corporation (AMCON) Bill by both chambers of the National Assembly.
- The Gross external reserves stood at US$37.63 billion on 23 rd June, 2010 representing a decrease of US$1.19 billion or 3.06 per cent when compared with the level of US$38.82 billion as at 31st May 2010.
- The Committee, however, noted that the current external reserves level is still adequate as it would finance 16 months of import, compared to the internationally recommended benchmark of 3 months of import cover for a country’s external reserves.
- The Committee’s Considerations Against the backdrop of the foregoing, the MPC noted with satisfaction the continued macroeconomic stability.
You can download the minutes of the last MPC meeting below:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – July 5th 2010
The minutes of the MPC meeting of May 2010 can also be downloaded here:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – May 2010