Access Economic Quarterly Q2 2010
FSDH – Economic and Financial Market Review and Outlook – HY2 2010
IBTC Quarterly Economic Review – Q2 2010

Here is Access bank’s outlook for the rest of the year:

- GDP growth to stay above 6% in the near – medium term. NBS recently projected that the economy would grow by 7.74% by end-2010, up from 6.66% recorded in 2009. However, the growth trajectory may be undermined by a downward spiral in oil price at the international market, amid weak demand fundamentals, poor state of infrastructure, sustained inflationary pressures and the possibility of breakdown of FG’s Amnesty Programme.

- Moderate inflationary pressures due to CBN’s AMCON, SME and Power Sector Intervention Funds. Expansionary nature of the budget, moderate increase in commodity prices, announcement effect of salary increase for public sector employees and the proposed removal of petroleum products subsidy may pose additional upside risks to price stability. However, inflation appears to be effectively balanced by the continued underperformance of monetary aggregates, well-anchored inflationary expectations, weak aggregate demand, adequate supply of food and petroleum products, as well as stability in Naira’s exchange rate.

- Naira to stay stable against the US Dollar in the near term. CBN remains the largest supplier of foreign exchange in the economy and with expected increases in sale of FX by oil companies following FG’s peace deal with militants, Naira would further stabilize at current levels. Naira’s outlook remains tied to size of external reserves, FX demand, sustained high crude oil price, as well as development in global economy.

- Domestic interest rate to remain stable at current levels. Decline in statutory returns and the erosion of confidence in the market pose upside risks to a stable interest rate outlook. However, the CBN extension of its guarantee for all interbank transactions from December 2010 to June 30, 2011 will likely stabilize rates at current levels.

- Equities market to experience rebound from recent lows. Improved investors’ optimism and expected positive effect of the AMCON arrangement would likely put key indicators of the equities market in an upward trajectory in the medium term, when the company is expected to buy up banks’ toxic assets.

- The bond market is set to receive a boost. We also anticipate an increase in state and corporate bond issues to better fund longer term projects. Also FG has plans to finance N897 billion of its total deficit worth N1.5 trillion from the local bond issues.

- Banks earnings likely to be suppressed, as competition is expected to reduce profit margin, especially with respect to interest rate spread. A resurgence in massive deposit mobilization drive may distort the relatively stable interest rates in the money market.

Corporate Earnings for August 16th – 27th 2010

Results for week ended August 20th 2010:

Results for week ended August 27th 2010:

Afrinvest – Flour Mills Q1 2011
Afrinvest – Union Bank 6M 2010 Earnings Update
FSDH – BCC – Q2 2010
FSDH – Nigerian Breweies PLC Q2 2010
FSDH – GlaxoSmithKline June 2010
FSDH – Zenith Bank 2010
FSDH – Nestle PLC- 2010
Vetiva – Ashaka Cem PLC Q1 2010 and H1 2010
Vetiva – Flour Mills of Nigeria Q1 2010
Vetiva – Nigerian Breweries H1
Vetiva – Cadbury Nigeria Plc Q210

Afrinvest 2010 Banking Sector Report

Here are some charts from the report:

Market share by total assets and total deposits:

Bank share by shareholder funds and total loans:

Bank Capitalization:

Market share by gross revenues:

Operating statistics:

Major equity markets around the globe suffered a downward turn as their various indexes dropped significant points. In our universe of sample equity markets, the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and the S & P 500 all lost points by 1.75%, 1.50% and 1.53% respectively at the end of last week. In Europe, all major indices recorded downward movements. The FTSE, and France CAC 40 decreased by 1.65% and 2.15% respectively, while the German Dax inched up by 1.79%. In the Asia/Pacific region, the Hang Seng, Nikkei and BSE Sensex lost point by 1.65%, 3.64% and 1.21% at the end of the week. Back home, the NSE ASI closed at 24,175.53, recording 4.06% depreciation at the end of the week.

Transactions for the week had the total volume depreciating by 17.61 while value traded depreciated by 18.16%. A turnover of 1.17 billion units of shares valued at N10.41billion, in contrast to a turnover of 1.42 billion units of shares worth N12.72 billion that was recorded two weeks ago.

Volume this week was driven by activity in the shares of NP, FIRSTALUM, VONO, LONGMAN, EVANSMED, IKEJAHOTEL, CRUSADER, LIVESTOCK, SPRINGBAK and NNFM. On the segmented index, NSE-30 decreased by 4.21% to close at 1,006.06, Food and Beverages index decreased by 4.58% to close at 776.09, NSE-Banking decreased by 6.72% to close at 349.43, NSE-Insurance Index decreased 3.71% to close at 168.84 and NSE-Oil & Gas decreased by 2.18% to close at 363.73.

During the period under review, twenty-four (24) stocks recorded price appreciation compared with forty-eight (48) gainers two weeks ago. AP was first on the top gainers’ chart to close with 21.42%, followed by FIRSTALUM with 19.05%, followed by VONO with 11.54%, followed by LONGMAN with 10.08%. Other gainers in the top ten category were EVANSMED with 7.50%, IKEJAHOTEL with 5.98%, CRUSADER with 5.66%, LIVESTOCK with 5.26%, SPRINGBANK with 5% and NNFM with 5%.

On flip side, sixty-one (61) stocks depreciated in price last week compared with thirty-seven (37) decliners two weeks ago. OCEANIC led on the price losers’ table with 17.79%, followed by WEMABANK by 17.02%, PLATINUM by 16.79%, STARCOMMS by 14.50%, CILEASING by 13.85%, INTERCONTINENTAL by 13.51%, GOLDINSURE by 12.28%, FTNCOCOA by 11.94%, RTBRISCOE by 11.86% and STERLNBNK by 11.82%.

Here are the weekly NSE reports from Lead Capital, Afrinvest, FSDH, and IBTC:
FSDH NSE Report – August 20th 2010
FSDH NSE Report – August 27th 2010
IBTC NSE Report – August 20th 2010
IBTC NSE Report – August 27th 2010
Lead Capital – NSE Report – August 20th 2010
Lead Capital – NSE Report – August 27th 2010
Afrinvest Forthnightly Update – Aug 20th 2010
FDC Bi-monthly Publication – August 2010

And here are the reports:

FSDH – Weekly NSE Report – Aug 13th 2010

Lead Capital – Weekly NSE Report – Aug 13th 2010

IBTC – Weekly NSE Report – Aug 13th 2010

Lead Capital and IBTC’s reports for this past week were particularly rich. Lead Capital’s had a lot of information and news analysis on the macroeconomic events while IBTC’s included analysis of 3 stocks and their recommendations.

FCMB H1 2010 Results Presentation
FCMB H1 2010 Results Press Release
Fidelity Bank H1 2010 Results
Fidelity Bank Q2 2010 Presentation
Fidelity Bank Q2 2010 Press Release
FSDH – Company Report – Zenith Bank 2010
GT Bank June 2010 Half Year Investor Presentation
GTBank HY2010 Financial Statement
GTBank HY2010 Financial Summary
Skye Bank H1 2010 Full Results
Skye Bank H1 2010 Press Release
Zenith Bank H1 2010 Group Results Presentation

Here is CBN‘s press release after the bill was signed:
CBN Press Release On The Signing Of The AMCON Bill

Vetiva Banking Update – July 2010 – Analysis Of Bad Bank Bill

Transactions for the week were higher with total volume and value traded both appreciating by 22.87% and 54.45% respectively. A turnover of 2.31billion units of shares valued at N18.58billion, in contrast to a turnover of 1.88billion shares worth N12.03billion that was recorded two weeks ago.

The Banking subsector was the most active during the week (measured by turnover volume). Volumes traded in this subsector were largely driven by activity in the shares of Skyebank, Aiico, Transcorp, Tourist, Diamondbank, Uba, Firstbank, Guaranty, Zenithbank and Access. On the segmented index, NSE-30 increased by 3.50% to close at 1,075.99, Food and Beverages index increased by 3.30% to close at 844.15, NSE-Banking increased by 4.72% to close at 392.06, NSE-Insurance Index 4.31% to close at 187.52 and NSE-Oil & Gas decreased by 2.35% to close at 377.34.

During the period under review, fifty (50) stocks recorded price appreciation compared with fortyone (41) gainers two weeks ago. FTNCocoa led the top gainers’ chart to close with 16.92%, followed by Unhomes with 16.39%, followed by Aiico with 15.79%, followed by Fcmb with 13.70%. Other gainers in the top ten category were Nigerins with 11.11%, Fidelitybk with 10.48%, Springbnk with 10.00%, Intercont with 9.76%, FirstInlnd with 8.93% and Dangsugar with 8.88%.

On flip side, thirty-six (36) stocks depreciated in price last week compared with thirty-seven (37) decliners two weeks ago. AP led on the price losers’ table with 13.37%, followed by Redstarex by 12.37%, Cileasing by 12.22%, Tourist by 9.56%, Airservice by 9.23%, Rtbriscoe by 9.05%, Bigtreat by 8.57%, Bagco by 6.99%, Japauloil by 6.37% and Mobil by 5.00%.

And here are the stats for the week:
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And here are the reports from Lead Capital, http://www.fsdhsecurities.com/, and IBTC:
IBTC – Weekly NSE Report – July 30th 2010
FSDH – Weekly NSE Report – July 30th 2010
Lead Capital – Weekly NSE Report – July 30th 2010

1. Diamond Bank 6M 2010 Results
2. Diamond Bank Q2 2010 Results
   
3. Diamond Bank Press Release
4. FCMB 6M 2010 Results
5. FCMB 6M 2010 Press Release
6. Zenith Bank 6M 2010 Results
7. First Bank 6M 2010 Results
8. First Bank 6M 2010 Results Press Release
9. UBA 6M 2010 Results Press Release

Vetiva Securities has prepared a short analysis of the bank reports. You can view that below:
Vetiva H1 Banking Update

Money and Fixed Income markets
The money market was tight as a result of about N105bn that left the system through Federal Government Bond auction. Consequently, inter-bank rates inched up at the end of the week. Available data showed that 7-day NIBOR closed the week at 2.03%, 84 basis point increase from the previous week’s figure of 1.88%, while 90-day NIBOR closed the week at 7.13%, a 71 basis point increase from the previous week’s figure of 6.83%.

There was no activity at the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury Bills auction. However, at the re-opening of the 3-year FGN Bond auction, the DMO offered N35bn, while it was 220% subscribed at N77bn. The Bond carried a marginal rate of 7.48%. At the re-opening of the 5-year FGN Bond auction, the DMO offered N35bn, while it was 175.26% subscribed at N61.34bn. The Bond carried a marginal rate of 8.85%. The 20-year FGN Bond auction was a new issue, the DMO offered N35bn while it was 209.37% subscribed at N73.28bn. The Bond carried a coupon rate of 10%.

In all, this week, there was a total outflow of N105bn from the primary segment of the government securities market.

At the foreign exchange auction held on Monday, July 19, 2010, the CBN offered and sold a total of US$250mn, while demand stood at US$311.25mn, representing 124.50% of what was offered. On Wednesday, July 21, 2010, the CBN offered US$250mn, demand stood at US$205.50mn, representing 82.20% of what was offered, while the total sale was same as demand of US$205.50mn. During the week, a total of US$455.80mn was sold, compared to US$500mn sold in the previous week, while US$516.75mn was demanded, representing 103.35% of what was offered.

The value of Naira appreciated at the inter-bank and parallel markets, but depreciated at the official market segment of the foreign exchange market. At the inter-bank market segment of the foreign exchange market, the value of Naira appreciated by 66kobo to close at N149.90/US$1, compared to N150.56/US$1 in the previous week. At the parallel market segment of the foreign exchange market, the value of the Naira appreciated by 30kobo to close at N152.20/US$1, compared to the previous week’s figure of N152.50/US$1. At official market, the value of the Naira depreciated by 10kobo to close at N148.72/US$1 from N148.62/US$1 in the previous week.

Equities Market
Investors’ interest was sustained in the market during the week on account of good earnings reported and the progress made in establishing the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON). Consequently, the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) closed the week on a positive note. The NSE ASI appreciated by 1.70% to close at 25,269.36 points, compared to the marginal appreciation of 0.96% recorded in the previous week; bringing the Year-To-Date (YTD) to 21.33%. The appreciation in the Index was as a result of the gains recorded in the Banking and Manufacturing & Allied sub-sectors. Similarly, the market capitalization appreciated to close the week at N6,179.97bn (approximately US$41.55bn), recording an appreciation of 1.70%, compared to the marginal appreciation of 0.96% recorded in the previous week.

The value of stocks in the Banking Sector  by 1.72% to close the week at 277.46 points, compared to the previous week’s appreciation of 3.79%. The appreciation in the Index was due to the gains recorded in the share prices of Sterling Bank (Up 7.39% to N2.18), First Bank (Up 6.92% to N14.06), Diamond Bank (Up 5.63% to N7.50), Access Bank (Up 4.94% to N8.50), UBA (Up 3.78% to N10.43), Stanbic IBTC (Up 2.00% to N9.18) and Fidelity Bank (Up marginally 0.44% to N2.29). However, there were depreciation in the share prices of FCMB (Down 6.17% to N7.30), Zenith Bank (Down 1.00% to N12.86), Skye Bank (Down marginally 0.69% to N7.20) and GT Bank (Down marginally 0.41% to N17.01).

The value of stocks in the Manufacturing & Allied sector appreciated by 1.38% to close the week at 305.51 points, compared to the previous week’s appreciation of 1.27%. The appreciation in the Index was due to gains recorded in the share prices of Cadbury (Up 12.06% to N29.00), Ashakacem (Up 11.63% to N19.00), UACN (Up 7.29% to N43.99), PZ Cussons (Up 6.56% to N32.50), Dangote Flour (Up 5.24% to N20.50), Honeywell Flour (Up 3.94% to N6.80), CCNN (Up 3.70% to N16.80), NAHCO (Up 2.50% to N10.25), Dangote Sugar (Up 1.71% to N17.80), Unilever (Up 1.44% to N24.00), UPDC (Up marginally 0.14% to N21.00) and Benue Cement (Up marginally 0.08% to N62.05).

The value of stocks in the Petroleum Marketing sector depreciated by 1.88% to close at 421.50 points, compared to the previous week’s depreciation of 1.27%. The depreciation in the index was due to losses recorded in the share prices of Mobil Oil (Down 5.00% to N185.94), Conoil (Down 4.81% to N49.50), and Oando (Down marginally 0.41% to N69.71). All other stocks in the index closed the week unchanged.

The value of stocks in the Insurance Index depreciated by 1.18% to close the week at 98.05 points, compared to the previous week’s marginal depreciation of 0.34%. The depreciation recorded in the Index was because of the losses recorded in the share prices of Intercontinental WAPIC (Down 19.12% to N0.56), N.E.M Insurance (Down 5.66% to N0.50), AIICO Insurance (Down 4.20% to N1.14), Law Union & Rock (Down 3.70% to N0.52), Oasis Insurance (Down 3.51% to N0.55) and Custodian & Allied Insurance (Down 3.10% to N3.44).

Other top gainers for the week were Afribank (Up 26.16% to N2.17), Wema Bank (Up 23.53% to N1.05), Oceanic Bank (Up 19.63% to N1.95), Union Diagnostic (Up 16.36% to N0.64) and CHAMS (Up 15.69% to N0.59); while other top losers for the week were Afromedia (Down 12.50% to N0.56), Beco Petroleum (Down 11.24% to N0.79), Livestock Feeds (Down 10.45% to N0.60), FTN Cocoa (Down 9.72% to N0.65) and Okomu Oil (Down 9.65% to N12.26). Overall, forty-six (46) stocks recorded gains in their share prices; forty-three (43) stocks recorded losses, while one hundred and twenty-six (126) stocks closed the week unchanged.

Over-the–Counter Bond Market
A turnover of 261.75mn units worth N291,668.8mn in 3,286 deals was recorded this week in contrast to a total of 255mn units valued at N293,555.5mn exchanged in 2,554 deals during the week ended Thursday, July 15, 2010. The most active bond (measured by turnover volume) was the 4th FGN Bond 2014 Series 11 with a traded volume of 57.05mn units valued at N66,880.72mn in 1,135 deals. This was followed by the 7th FGN Bond 2015 Series 1 with a traded volume of 56.1mn units valued at N54,980mn in 548 deals. Eighteen (18) of the available thirty-seven (37) FGN Bonds were traded during the week, compared with twenty-four (24) in the preceding week.

The reports from FSDH, Afrinvest and IBTC are available for download below:

1. FSDH – NSE Report – July 23rd 2010
2. IBTC – NSE Report – July 23rd 2010
3. Afrinvest Forthnightly NSE Report – July 23rd 2010

Some notes from the minutes for the meeting include:

1. Provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 7.23 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 up from 4.50 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2009. 
2. GDP was projected to grow by 7.68, 7.76  and  8.13  per  cent  in  the  second,  third  and  fourth quarters of  2010,  respectively.
3. Overall  GDP  growth  for  2010  is  projected  at  7.74  per  cent  which  is  higher  than  the revised  figure    of 6.66  per  cent  recorded  in  2009.   
4. The non-oil sector is expected to remain the main driver of overall growth, with agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, and services contributing 2.49, 2.03 and 2.11 per cent, respectively. 
5. The weighted average savings rate dropped marginally to 2.92 per cent in May 2010 from 3.36 per cent in December 2009.
6. The consolidated deposit rates declined to 3.30  per  cent  in  May  2010  from  6.13  per  cent  in  December  2009.  Thus,  the  spread between the average maximum lending rate and the consolidated deposit rate widened to 19.27  per  cent  in  May  2010  from  17.34  per  cent  in  December, 2009.   
7. The Committee noted that the key policy challenges remained the negative growth in money supply and private sector credit as well as the subsisting high lending rates in the face of declining inter-bank rates.  
8. The Nigerian capital market is still showing some signs of recovery. The All-Share Index (ASI)  increased  from  20,827.17  at  end-December  2009 to  25,554.35  as  at  23rd June, 2010, or by 20.70 per cent.
9. Market capitalization (MC)—equities only, increased by 24.9 per cent from N4.98trillion to N6.28 trillion over the same period. The number of deals, volume  and  value  of  shares  traded  increased  by  16.34,  19.23 and 100.00  per  cent, respectively. The increase in ASI and MC was principally due to share price increases in the Banking, Food & Beverage and Oil/Gas sectors. 
10. The Committee welcomed the continuing improvement in the stock market, and noted the potentials for further recovery given the passage of the harmonized Asset Management Corporation (AMCON) Bill by both chambers of the National Assembly.  
11. The Gross external reserves stood at US$37.63 billion on 23 rd June, 2010 representing a decrease of US$1.19 billion or 3.06 per cent when compared with the level of US$38.82 billion as at 31st   May 2010.   
12. The  Committee,  however,  noted that the  current  external reserves level is still adequate as it would finance 16 months of import, compared to the internationally  recommended  benchmark  of  3  months  of import  cover  for  a  country’s external reserves. 
13. The Committee’s Considerations Against  the  backdrop  of  the  foregoing,  the  MPC  noted with  satisfaction  the  continued macroeconomic  stability.

You can download the minutes of the last MPC meeting below:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – July 5th 2010

The minutes of the MPC meeting of May 2010 can also be downloaded here:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – May 2010

1. Moderation in the major monetary aggregates in April 2010
2. General decline in banks’ deposits and lending rates
3. Oil and non-oil receipts were than budgeted
4. Inflation rate was at 12.5% at the end of April 2010
5. Oil receipts accounted for 73.8% of total government receipts
6. Exchange rate was at N149.98 to $1

You can read an excerpt from the summary section below:

Growth  in  major  monetary  aggregates  moderated  in  April 2010  relative  to  the  level  in  the  preceding  month.  Broad money (M 2) contracted by 0.5 per cent, relative to the preceding month. The decline in M 2 was due wholly, to the 3.3 per cent decline in foreign asset (net) of the banking system. Narrow  money  (M1),  however,  increased,  by  1.6  per  cent, over  the  level  in  the  preceding  month. Reserve  money  (RM) contracted  by  16.3  per  cent  from  the  level  at  the  end  of March 2010.

Available data indicated a general decline in banks’ deposit and   lending   rates.   The   spread   between   the   weighted average term deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed marginally,  from  15.94  percentage  points  in  the  preceding month  to  15.77  percentage  points.  The margin  between  the average  savings  deposit  and  maximum  lending  rates  also narrowed  from  19.68  percentage  points  in  March  2010  to 19.54   percentage   points   during  the   review   period.   The weighted  average  inter-bank  call  rate  fell  to  1.27  per  cent from  1.50 per  cent  in  the  preceding  month,  reflecting  the liquidity conditions in the interbank funds market.
 
The value of money market assets outstanding rose by 2.5 per cent  over  the  level  in  March  2010  to  N3,397.1  billion.  The development was attributed to the increase in FGN Bonds. Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bullish as all the major market indicators trended upward during the review month.  Total   federally-collected   revenue   in   April   of   2010   was estimated at N537.74 billion, representing a shortfall of 19.9 per cent from the proportionate monthly budget estimate, but an increase  of  12.3  per  cent  over  the receipts  in  the  preceding month.  At  N396.89  billion,  oil  receipts,  which  constituted  73.8 per  cent  of  the  total,  fell  short  of the  proportionate  monthly budget  estimate  by  18.6  per  cent,  but  rose  by  11.4  per  cent over     the     receipts     in     the    preceding     month.    

The underperformance in oil receipts relative to the proportionate monthly  budget  estimate  resulted  from  the  fall in petroleum profit  tax,  royalties  and  crude  oil  and  gas  export  receipts during the month.  Similarly, non-oil receipts, at N140.85 billion or 26.2 per cent of the total was 23.2 per cent lower than the proportionate budget estimate, but higher than the receipts in the  preceding  month and  the  level  in  the  corresponding period  of  2009,  by  14.8  and  38.8  per  cent,  respectively.  The improved   performance   relative  to   the   preceding   month reflected  largely  the  rise  in  all  the  components  namely, customs  and  excise  duties,  value-added  tax,  and company income  tax  and  other  taxes  as  well  as  “others”.  Federal Government estimated retained revenue for April 2010 was N135.65billion, while total estimated expenditure was N289.99 billion.  Thus,  the  fiscal  operations  of  the  Federal  Government resulted  in an  estimated  deficit  of  N153.29  billion,  compared with  the  budgeted  deficit  of  N126.83  billion  for  the  review month.

The major agricultural activities during the month of April 2010 were clearing and planting operations.  Nigeria’s  crude  oil production, including  condensates  and  natural  gas  liquids, was  estimated  at  2.10  million  barrels  per  day  (mad)  or  63.0 million  barrels  for the month.  Crude  oil  export  was  estimated at  1.65  mbd  or  49.5  million  barrels  for  the  month,  while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption remained at  0.45  mbd  or13.5  million  barrels.  The average price of Nigeria’s   reference   crude,   the   Bonny Light   (370   API), estimated at US$85.51 per barrel, rose by 0.6 per cent over the level in the preceding month. 

The  end-period  headline  inflation  rate  (year-on-year),  for  the month of April of 2010, was 12.5 per cent, compared with 11.8 per  cent recorded  at  the  end  of  the  preceding  month. Inflation  rate  on  a  twelve-month  moving  average  basis  for April  2010  was  11.8  per cent,  compared  with  11.9  per  cent recorded in the preceding month.  Foreign  exchange  inflow  and  outflow  through  the  Central Bank  of Nigeria  (CBN)  amounted  to  US$2.02  billion  and US$2.98  billion,  respectively,  resulting  in  a  net  outflow  of US$0.96  billion  during the review  month.  Foreign  exchange sales  by  the  CBN  to  the  authorized  dealers  amounted  to US$2.15 billion in April 2010.
 
The  average  Naira  exchange  rate  vis-à-vis  the  US  dollar, depreciated  by  0.04  per  cent  to  N149.89  per  dollar  at  the WDAS. In the bureaux-de-change segment of the market, the naira also depreciated by 0.1 per cent to N152.00 per dollar, while at the interbank segment it depreciated from N150.08 per US dollar in March 2010 to N150.38 per dollar.  Non-oil   export   earnings   by   Nigerian   exporters   declined sharply,  by  66.2  per  cent,  from  the  level  in  the  preceding month  to  US$112.4  million.  The development was attributed largely to the fall in the prices of all the commodities traded at the international commodities market during the period.  World crude oil output in April 2010 was estimated at 85.87 million barrels per day (mbd), while demand was estimated at 85.16 mbd, compared with the respective levels of 85.65and 85.13 mbd supplied and demanded in the preceding month.

You can download the report in full below:
CBN – April 2010 Economic Report

Provisional  data  from  the  National  Bureau   of  Statistics  (NBS) estimated GDP growth in the first quarter of 2010 at 6.7 per cent, compared  with   8.2   per   cent  in  the   preceding   quarter.   The projected  growth  was  driven  mainly  by  the  non-oil  sector  which contributed6.64 percentage points to the growth rate. Broad money (M 2 ) grew by 2.3 per cent, relative to the preceding quarter.  The  increase in M 2   was  due  largely  to  the  rise  in  net domestic  credit  and  other  assets  (net)  of  the  banking  system. Narrow money (M 1 ), however,declined, by 1.0 per cent, from the level in the preceding quarter. Reserve money (RM) expanded by 9.5  per  cent  over  the  level  at the end  of  the  preceding  quarter, but  fell  short  of  the  indicative  benchmark  for  Q1  2010  by  0.7  per cent.

Available data indicated a general decline in banks’ deposit and lending  rates.  The  spread  between  the  weighted  average  term deposit and maximum lending rates, however, widened from 11.40 percentage points in the preceding quarter to 13.69 percentage points.  The  margin  between the  average  savings  deposit  and maximum  lending  rates  also  widened  from  19.74  percentage points in the preceding quarter to 19.83percentage points during the  review  period.  The  weighted  average  inter-bank  call  rate fell to  2.05  per  cent  from  5.80  per  cent in  the  preceding  quarter, reflecting the liquidity condition in the interbank funds market.  The value of money market assets outstanding fell by0.2 per cent from  the  level  in  the  preceding  quarter  to  N3,314.6  billion.  The development    was    attributed    to    the   decline   in    Bankers’ Acceptances  (BAs)  and  Commercial  Papers  (CPs).  Activities  on the Nigerian Stock Exchange  (NSE)  were mixed during the review quarter. 

Total federally-collected revenue in the first quarter of 2010 stood at  N1,561.59  billion,  representing  a  shortfall  of  22.4  per  cent  from the  proportionate  budget  estimate,  but  an  increase  of  13.9  per cent  over  the  receipts  in  the  preceding  quarter.  At  N1,156.73 billion, oil receipts, which constituted 74.1 per cent of the total, fell short  of the proportionate  budget  estimate  by  20.9  per  cent,  but rose by  23.6 per cent over the receipts in the preceding quarter. The under performance in oil receipts relative to the proportionate budget estimate  was  largely  attributed  to  the  fall  in  petroleum profit tax and royalties. Similarly, non-oil receipts, at N404.86 billion or  25.9 per  cent  of  the  total  was  lower  than  the  proportionate budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter by 26.4  and   7.0   per  cent,   respectively.   The   shortfall   relative   to   the proportionate budget estimate reflected largely the fall in customs and excise duties and company income tax and other taxes.

Federal Government retained revenue for the first quarter of 2010 was  N599.82  billion,  while  total  expenditure  was  N877.35  billion. Thus,the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted in a deficit of N277.54 billion or 4.3 per cent of estimated nominal GDP for Q1 2010,compared with the budgeted deficit of N380.48 billion for  the  review  quarter  and  a  surplus  of  N32.56  billion  in  the corresponding quarter of 2009.  Agricultural  activities  during  the  review  quarter  centered  largely on harvesting of tree crops, clearing of land for the 2010 cropping season as well as preparation of land for irrigated farming. 

Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at 1.99 million barrels per day (mbd) or 179.1 million barrels for the quarter. Crude oil export was estimated at 1.54 mbd or 138.6 million barrels for the quarter, while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.445 mbd or  40.5  million  barrels.  The  average  price  of  Nigeria’s  reference crude, the Bonny Light (37 0  API), estimated at US$79.10 per barrel, rose by 1.1 per cent over the level in the preceding quarter.  The  end-period headline  inflation  rate  (year-on-year),  for  the  first quarter of 2010,  was 11.8 per cent, compared with 12.0 and 14.4 per  cent  recorded at the  end  of  the  preceding  quarter  and  the corresponding  quarter  of  2009,  respectively.  Inflation  rate  on  a twelve-month moving average basis for the first  quarter, was 11.9 per cent, compared with 12.4 and 13.1 per cent recorded in the preceding    quarter    and    the   corresponding    quarter,    2009, respectively. 

Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the Central Bank of Nigeria  (CBN)  amounted  to  US$6.52  billion  and  US$8.07  billion, respectively,resulting in a net outflow of US$1.55 billion during the quarter.  Foreign  exchange  sales  by  the  CBN  to  the  authorized dealers amounted to US$6.07 billion in Q1 2010.  The   average   Naira   exchange   rate   vis-à-vis   the   US   dollar, appreciated by 0.1% to N149.94 per dollar at the WDAS. In the  bureaux-de-change  segment  of  the  market,  the  Naira  also appreciated from N153.16 per dollar toN152.49 per dollar while it depreciated  marginally  at  the  interbank  segment  from  N150.35 per US dollar in Q4 2009 to N150.46 per dollar.  Non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters declined by 35.1 per  cent  from  the  level  in  the  preceding  quarter  to  US$630.5  million. The development was attributed largely to the fall in the prices of all  the  commodities  traded  at  the  international  commodities market during the period. 

Download the report below:
CBN Q1 Economic Report