While this report is now outdated, I thought it will be useful to consider the CBN’s report for the first half of 2008 and their outlook for the 2nd half of 2008. Their outlook for H2 2008 was:

The favourable domestic macroeconomic environment in the first half of 2008 is expected to be sustained as internal balance is combined with external viability. The real GDP growth rate is projected to improve further based on expected good agricultural harvest owing to increasing volume and spread of rainfall, reinforced by the Federal Government agricultural policies, especially on fertilizer procurement and distribution.

Industrial output is expected to be buoyed as investment in the power sector and other infrastructural facilities begin to yield positive results. Crude oil output is likely to grow moderately in the second half of 2008 as the violence in the Niger Delta is stemmed. High international price of crude oil, the  sustained capital inflow and huge external reserves are expected to have positive impact on the external sector.

The implementation of the seven-point agenda of the President, the Vision 2020 programme and the continued favourable sovereign rating of the Nigerian economy are additional factors that would give the domestic economy a boost. The expected inflow and the resultant expansionary fiscal profile of the three tiers of government,  especially the bunching of capital releases in the second half of 2008 could precipitate liquidity surfeit in both the foreign exchange and domestic money markets leading to exchange rate appreciation and inflationary pressures. Expectedly, the sustained proactive monetary policy actions by the monetary authorities would have to be applied to head-off the emerging threat to macroeconomic stability.

Their forecast did not take the dramatic fall of the crude oil into consideration. It also did not consider the financial meltdown. If you will recall, as at March last year, there were already few signs of the impending meltdown.

CBN 1st Half of 2008 Report - 1 (701)
CBN 1st Half of 2008 Report - 2 (137)
CBN 1st Half of 2008 Report - 3 (70)
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CBN 1st Half of 2008 Report - 5 (63)
CBN 1st Half of 2008 Report - 6 (83)
CBN 1st Half of 2008 Report - 7 (69)