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The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria met on July 5th to review domestic economic conditions during the first half of 2010 and the challenges facing the Nigerian economy against the backdrop of developments in the international economic and financial environments in order to reassess the options for monetary policy for the remainder of the year. The 2 major decisions from the meeting were:
1. No changes were made to the current policy stance; the MPR should remain unchanged at 6.0 per cent; and
2. The asymmetric corridor of 200 basis points above and 500 basis points below the MPR, respectively, are to be retained.
Some notes from the minutes for the meeting include:
You can download the minutes of the last MPC meeting below:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – July 5th 2010
The minutes of the MPC meeting of May 2010 can also be downloaded here:
CBN Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Communique – May 2010
Here are the major points from the recently released Central Bank of Nigeria’s April 2010 Economic Report.:
You can read an excerpt from the summary section below:
Growth in major monetary aggregates moderated in April 2010 relative to the level in the preceding month. Broad money (M 2) contracted by 0.5 per cent, relative to the preceding month. The decline in M 2 was due wholly, to the 3.3 per cent decline in foreign asset (net) of the banking system. Narrow money (M1), however, increased, by 1.6 per cent, over the level in the preceding month. Reserve money (RM) contracted by 16.3 per cent from the level at the end of March 2010.Available data indicated a general decline in banks’ deposit and lending rates. The spread between the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed marginally, from 15.94 percentage points in the preceding month to 15.77 percentage points. The margin between the average savings deposit and maximum lending rates also narrowed from 19.68 percentage points in March 2010 to 19.54 percentage points during the review period. The weighted average inter-bank call rate fell to 1.27 per cent from 1.50 per cent in the preceding month, reflecting the liquidity conditions in the interbank funds market.
The value of money market assets outstanding rose by 2.5 per cent over the level in March 2010 to N3,397.1 billion. The development was attributed to the increase in FGN Bonds. Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were bullish as all the major market indicators trended upward during the review month. Total federally-collected revenue in April of 2010 was estimated at N537.74 billion, representing a shortfall of 19.9 per cent from the proportionate monthly budget estimate, but an increase of 12.3 per cent over the receipts in the preceding month. At N396.89 billion, oil receipts, which constituted 73.8 per cent of the total, fell short of the proportionate monthly budget estimate by 18.6 per cent, but rose by 11.4 per cent over the receipts in the preceding month.The underperformance in oil receipts relative to the proportionate monthly budget estimate resulted from the fall in petroleum profit tax, royalties and crude oil and gas export receipts during the month. Similarly, non-oil receipts, at N140.85 billion or 26.2 per cent of the total was 23.2 per cent lower than the proportionate budget estimate, but higher than the receipts in the preceding month and the level in the corresponding period of 2009, by 14.8 and 38.8 per cent, respectively. The improved performance relative to the preceding month reflected largely the rise in all the components namely, customs and excise duties, value-added tax, and company income tax and other taxes as well as “others”. Federal Government estimated retained revenue for April 2010 was N135.65billion, while total estimated expenditure was N289.99 billion. Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted in an estimated deficit of N153.29 billion, compared with the budgeted deficit of N126.83 billion for the review month.
The major agricultural activities during the month of April 2010 were clearing and planting operations. Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at 2.10 million barrels per day (mad) or 63.0 million barrels for the month. Crude oil export was estimated at 1.65 mbd or 49.5 million barrels for the month, while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.45 mbd or13.5 million barrels. The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (370 API), estimated at US$85.51 per barrel, rose by 0.6 per cent over the level in the preceding month.
The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year), for the month of April of 2010, was 12.5 per cent, compared with 11.8 per cent recorded at the end of the preceding month. Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis for April 2010 was 11.8 per cent, compared with 11.9 per cent recorded in the preceding month. Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$2.02 billion and US$2.98 billion, respectively, resulting in a net outflow of US$0.96 billion during the review month. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorized dealers amounted to US$2.15 billion in April 2010.
The average Naira exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar, depreciated by 0.04 per cent to N149.89 per dollar at the WDAS. In the bureaux-de-change segment of the market, the naira also depreciated by 0.1 per cent to N152.00 per dollar, while at the interbank segment it depreciated from N150.08 per US dollar in March 2010 to N150.38 per dollar. Non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters declined sharply, by 66.2 per cent, from the level in the preceding month to US$112.4 million. The development was attributed largely to the fall in the prices of all the commodities traded at the international commodities market during the period. World crude oil output in April 2010 was estimated at 85.87 million barrels per day (mbd), while demand was estimated at 85.16 mbd, compared with the respective levels of 85.65and 85.13 mbd supplied and demanded in the preceding month.
You can download the report in full below:
CBN – April 2010 Economic Report
You can download the recently released CBN’s Economic Report for Q1 2010. Here is an excerpt from the summary section:
Provisional data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated GDP growth in the first quarter of 2010 at 6.7 per cent, compared with 8.2 per cent in the preceding quarter. The projected growth was driven mainly by the non-oil sector which contributed6.64 percentage points to the growth rate. Broad money (M 2 ) grew by 2.3 per cent, relative to the preceding quarter. The increase in M 2 was due largely to the rise in net domestic credit and other assets (net) of the banking system. Narrow money (M 1 ), however,declined, by 1.0 per cent, from the level in the preceding quarter. Reserve money (RM) expanded by 9.5 per cent over the level at the end of the preceding quarter, but fell short of the indicative benchmark for Q1 2010 by 0.7 per cent.Available data indicated a general decline in banks’ deposit and lending rates. The spread between the weighted average term deposit and maximum lending rates, however, widened from 11.40 percentage points in the preceding quarter to 13.69 percentage points. The margin between the average savings deposit and maximum lending rates also widened from 19.74 percentage points in the preceding quarter to 19.83percentage points during the review period. The weighted average inter-bank call rate fell to 2.05 per cent from 5.80 per cent in the preceding quarter, reflecting the liquidity condition in the interbank funds market. The value of money market assets outstanding fell by0.2 per cent from the level in the preceding quarter to N3,314.6 billion. The development was attributed to the decline in Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs) and Commercial Papers (CPs). Activities on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) were mixed during the review quarter.
Total federally-collected revenue in the first quarter of 2010 stood at N1,561.59 billion, representing a shortfall of 22.4 per cent from the proportionate budget estimate, but an increase of 13.9 per cent over the receipts in the preceding quarter. At N1,156.73 billion, oil receipts, which constituted 74.1 per cent of the total, fell short of the proportionate budget estimate by 20.9 per cent, but rose by 23.6 per cent over the receipts in the preceding quarter. The under performance in oil receipts relative to the proportionate budget estimate was largely attributed to the fall in petroleum profit tax and royalties. Similarly, non-oil receipts, at N404.86 billion or 25.9 per cent of the total was lower than the proportionate budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter by 26.4 and 7.0 per cent, respectively. The shortfall relative to the proportionate budget estimate reflected largely the fall in customs and excise duties and company income tax and other taxes.
Federal Government retained revenue for the first quarter of 2010 was N599.82 billion, while total expenditure was N877.35 billion. Thus,the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted in a deficit of N277.54 billion or 4.3 per cent of estimated nominal GDP for Q1 2010,compared with the budgeted deficit of N380.48 billion for the review quarter and a surplus of N32.56 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2009. Agricultural activities during the review quarter centered largely on harvesting of tree crops, clearing of land for the 2010 cropping season as well as preparation of land for irrigated farming.
Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at 1.99 million barrels per day (mbd) or 179.1 million barrels for the quarter. Crude oil export was estimated at 1.54 mbd or 138.6 million barrels for the quarter, while deliveries to the refineries for domestic consumption remained at 0.445 mbd or 40.5 million barrels. The average price of Nigeria’s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37 0 API), estimated at US$79.10 per barrel, rose by 1.1 per cent over the level in the preceding quarter. The end-period headline inflation rate (year-on-year), for the first quarter of 2010, was 11.8 per cent, compared with 12.0 and 14.4 per cent recorded at the end of the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2009, respectively. Inflation rate on a twelve-month moving average basis for the first quarter, was 11.9 per cent, compared with 12.4 and 13.1 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter, 2009, respectively.
Foreign exchange inflow and outflow through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amounted to US$6.52 billion and US$8.07 billion, respectively,resulting in a net outflow of US$1.55 billion during the quarter. Foreign exchange sales by the CBN to the authorized dealers amounted to US$6.07 billion in Q1 2010. The average Naira exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar, appreciated by 0.1% to N149.94 per dollar at the WDAS. In the bureaux-de-change segment of the market, the Naira also appreciated from N153.16 per dollar toN152.49 per dollar while it depreciated marginally at the interbank segment from N150.35 per US dollar in Q4 2009 to N150.46 per dollar. Non-oil export earnings by Nigerian exporters declined by 35.1 per cent from the level in the preceding quarter to US$630.5 million. The development was attributed largely to the fall in the prices of all the commodities traded at the international commodities market during the period.
Download the report below:
CBN Q1 Economic Report
Here is Afrinvest’s take on First Bank’s recently released half year earnings report.
Earnings Update Report on First Bank Plc which highlights the latest interim results and an update on our Full Year ’10 earnings outlook on the company.
Q2’10 Results:
FY’10 Outlook:
You can download the report below:
Afrinvest – First Bank 6M 2010 Report
In: News
23 Jul 2010Here is Afrinvest’s take on the UBA’s recently released Half-year 2010 results:
6M’10 Results:
FY’10 Outlook:
Download the file below:
Afrinvest – UBA 6M ’10 Research Update – July 2010
Here are the NSE reports and stats for the week ended July 16th 2010:
And here are the reports:
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In: weekly report
14 Jul 2010Apologies for the late post. Here the the weekly NSE Market Reports for the past 2 weeks as well as the Stockbrokers’ reports for these weeks.
Week Ended July 9th 2010:
Here are the stockbrokers’ reports from FSDH and IBTC Asset Management for the week ended July 9th 2010:
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And for the week ended July 2nd 2010:
Here are the stockbrokers’ reports from IBTC and FSDH for the period ended July 2nd 2010:
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Here is the NSE Report for the week ended June 25th, 2010:
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In: weekly report
24 Jun 2010Courtesy of TRW, IBTC and FSDH, here are the weekly NSE Reports and stats for the week ended June 18th, 2010:
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In: weekly report
16 Jun 2010Here are the stats for the NSE for the last week. Also below are the NSE Reports from FSDH and IBTC.
And here are the NSE reports:
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Here are the monthly Economic Reports and Views presented by B.J. Rewane for May and June 2010 at the Lagos Business School. He summarizes the major events of the month and offers some analysis of these events and how they affect the economy.
Lagos Business School - Monthly Economic Views - June 2010 (5.22MB)
Lagos Business School - Monthly Economic Views - May 2010 (5.63MB)
Here are research reports for the recently released results for GlaxoSmithkline, Cadbury, NAHCO, Nigerian Breweries, Nestle, Guinness, and First Bank from Afrinvest, Vetiva and FSDH respectively. Happy reading!
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This blog is dedicated to informing users on the latest business and economic news news from the CBN and Nigerian Stock Exchange. Happy reading!