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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released the Revised GDP for 2011 and estimates for 2012. The executive summary is below:
Overall GDP Estimates (Revised 2011 and estimates of Q1 – Q4 of 2012)
On an aggregate basis, the economy when measured by the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 6.99% in fourth quarter of 2012 as against 7.76% in the corresponding quarter of 2011. This was also slightly lower than the initial forecast for the fourth quarter of 2012 at 7.09%. Relative to the third quarter of 2012, the economy experienced an uptick as growth increased by 0.44 percentage points from the 6.48% recorded in the third quarter of 2012.
The nominal GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 was estimated at 10,593,714,64 million naira as against the 9,554,854.69 million naira during the corresponding quarter of 2011. The economy, which can be broken into two broad output groups, that is, Oil and Non-oil sectors, had both sectors witnessing decreased output in the fourth quarter of 2012. The non-oil sector growth was driven by growth in activities recorded in the building & construction, cement, hotel and restaurant, and electricity sectors.
The average daily production was 2.14 million barrels per day in fourth quarter of 2012 as supplied by NNPC as against 2.44 million barrels per day in the corresponding quarter in 2011. These figures, with their associated gas components, resulted in a growth rate, in real terms of -0.79% in oil GDP in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with the -0.08% for the corresponding period in 2011. Production in this sector was also in a decline compared to the third quarter of 2012. In the third quarter, the sector grew by of 0.08% as against –0.79 pecent recorded in the fourth quarter as was earlier stated. G
The Nigerian oil sector had witnessed levels of disruptions due to facility shut downs. For example, the activities of vandals and oil theft has affected production of Bonny Light and Forcados grades as well as Qua Iboe crude oil production. However, the sector also benefited immensely from the relative stability in international crude oil market price and the exchange rate of naira against the dollar. The Oil sector contributed 12.59% to real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2012, lower than the 13.57% recorded in the corresponding quarter in 2011. Again, the contribution of this sector was relatively lower compared to third quarter of 2012 where the sector contributed 13.42%.
The Non-oil sector continued to be a major driver of the economy. On a year-on-year basis, growth in the sector was marginally lower by 0.89 percentage points as the sector recorded 8.21% growth in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with 9.10% at the corresponding period in 2011. Relative to the third quarter of 2011 however, growth was marginally higher as this sector recorded a growth rate of 7.55% during the period. The growth in the Non-oil sector decreased in the fourth quarter of 2012 when compared with the corresponding quarter of 2011. This decline was largely attributed to decline in activities in the Wholesale & Retail trade and Real Estate.
In furtherance to the earlier information provided in our third quarter GDP reports several assessments of the effect of flooding that occurred in year 2012, indicates that agricultural activities which comprise of crop production, Livestock, Fishing, forestry were affected in varied degrees. The impact especially on crop production was unevenly distributed across farms of different crop types. The moderated effect of the flood on crop were witnessed was because some crops were harvested already be fore the flood while others were to be planted after the flood receded. Most of the major crop are planted across most of the states in Nigeria as a result of which actual losses from affected state, were supplemented by production in the state that were not adversely affected. The fourth quarter GDP for 2012 is a reflection of the above scenario In terms of output, the real agricultural GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 stood at 3.62% , a decline from the 5.68% in the corresponding period of 2011. The growth in this sector was also relatively lower that the growth rate of 3.89% in the third quarter of 2012.
Finance & Insurance
The Finance and Insurance sub-sector comprises banking, insurance, pension and stockbroking firms. These firms operate in the various segments of the financial markets such as money market, capital market and the foreign exchange market. They play prominent role in ensuring an efficient financial intermediation in the economy. This sector recorded a growth of 3.48% in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with the 3.42% recorded in same period of 2011, The increased in growth of the sector was traceable to the vibrancy in the financial sector driven by increased facilities (products/ services) as well as the continued favourable investment yields in the bond market which has favoured key players in the industry especially pension fund managers, banks and insurances firms. Increased activities in the bond market has increased the vibrancy in business activities in the sector. Relative to the third quarter of 2012, growth in the sector slightly slower growth as growth in sector was lower by 0.60 percentage points from the 4.08% recorded in the third quarter of 2012.
Wholesale and Retail Trade
This sector recorded a real GDP growth of 10.81% and a contribution of 20.61% in the quarter under review as against 11.92% growth and 19.88% contribution to GDP recorded in corresponding quarter in 2011. Compared to the third quarter of 2012, the sector recorded a decline of 1.11 percentage points as 9.62% was recorded in that quarter. The decline is attributable to a number of factors which include decline in corresponding sectors (Agriculture, Other Manufacturing, Petroleum products) which are key inputs in the Wholesale and retail trade sector. Nevertheless, the sector is still a major driver of the economy.
Telecommunications and Post
This sector which used to suffer from absence of competition, abuse of monopoly in the market during the NITEL era is now with alternative options (Telecommunication ) for the consumers. This sector is playing pivotal role in the growth of many other sectors through its intensive marketing strategy and value added services. The data services is contributing tremendously to the growth of the sector. The sector recorded a real GDP growth of 32.44% in fourth quarter of 2012 as against 36.39% recorded in corresponding period in 2011. The decline in growth recorded in this sector was attributable to the declining quality of service due to economic inefficiencies or operational restructuring on the part of operators. The sector performed better in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter of 2012 as there was a slight up tick of 0.87 percentage points from the 31.57% recorded in the third quarter of 2012.
During the third quarter of 2012, manufacturing activities increased relative to the same period in 2011. It recorded an increase in growth rate from 7.63% in fourth quarter of 2011 to 7.70% in the review period in 2012 as shown in Figure 12. The development is traceable to a number of factors which include. Stead improvement in power supply increase production in cement industry and value-chain policy of the government towards some production sectors.
The sector is characterised by two major classes of properties:-, the low end and the high end. The low end being places of low development which are driven by investments from individuals and few corporate bodies mostly in form of residential buildings, while the high end comprises of those areas where aggressive and high valued investments into real estate properties are made. The situation at the high end areas is a decreasing demand situation. However, investments from individuals and some corporate entities still trickle into the low end of the sector. The situation is that this sector is driven by the activities in the low end. The growth recorded in the sector stood at 11.09% in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with 11.16% in corresponding period of 2011, a relative decline of –0.07 percentage points. The sector performed better in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter of 2012 as there was an appreciation of 0.85 percentage points from the 10.24% recorded in the third quarter of 2012.
Business and Other services
The increase in growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2012 relative to its performance in the fourth quarter of 2011 in Business and Other Services was traceable to the higher consumer demands. The sector recorded a real GDP growth of 10.46% in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to 9.81% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2011. Growth in this sector was also relatively higher than rates recorded in the third quarter of 2012 by 1.35 percentage points, as the sector grew by 9.11% during the third quarter. GDP Estimates for 2011, Q1 – Q3, 2012.
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