Company Research - Afrinvest - Guaranty Trust Assurance Plc Q1 2011 Result (171).

Company Research - Afrinvest - Guinness Nigeria Plc Q3 2011 Result (211).

Company Research - Afrinvest - Skye Bank Plc Q2 2011 Result (191).

Company Research - Afrinvest - Zenith Bank Plc Q2 2011 Result (205).

Company Research - Cadbury Nigeria PLC - FSDH - July 2011 (228).

Company Research - Cordros - Unilever Plc Q1 2011 Result (217).

Company Research - Flour Mills - FY 2011 Results - Afrinvest (235).

Company Research - FSDH - Guinness Nig. Plc Q3 Mar. 2011 (207).

Dangote:

Afrinvest\'s Dangote Investor Presentation (207).

Oando:

Oando - H1 2010 Presentation (151).

Company Report - Afrinvest - AP FY 2009 Earnings Update (140).

Company Report - Afrinvest - Neimeth International FY 2010 Earnings Update (179).

Veriva - Company Analysis - BCC - Sept 2010 (392).

Vetiva Research - FirstBankof Nigeria (159).

Vetiva Research - UBA (247).

Unilever (Nigeria) Plc :
Highlights:
Q1 ’10 Results:
* Unilever reported  marginal growth in earnings.
* Turnover went up by 4.8% to N10.9bn (US$72.5m); PBT, on the contrary, fell by 15.7% to N1.4bn (US$9.3m).
* Pre-tax margins fell from 15.7% in Q1 ’09 to 12.7% in Q1 ’10, indicating an increase in operating expenses.

FY ’10 Outlook:
* The company continues to build on recent innovation and cost-containment strategies.
* We however review FY 2010 PBT and PAT to N7.0bn (US$46.4m) and N4.8bn (US$31.9m) respectively.
* We remain NEUTRAL in the short term (3 – 6 months), but we anticipate an upward trend in the long term and re-iterate our FY ’10 (12 month) price target of N30.79.

Berger Paints Plc:
Highlights:
FY’09 Results:
* Berger Paint’s turnover was down by 6.1% to N2.4bn (US$15.9m).
* PBT and pre-tax margins however went up by 31.9% and 13.6% respectively.
* Despite the effects of the harsh economic conditions in 2009, the company’s liquidity position and conservative management resulted in cost savings and improved production efficiency and effectiveness.

FY’10 Outlook:
* We believe that future earnings potential will continue to be threatened by industry specific constraints and impair profitability.
* Our recommendation is SELL at current valuations, as we believe that Berger Paints trades in a sector that is priced at a premium to the market.

Oando Plc:
Highlights:
Q1’10 Results:
* Oando reported an impressive turnover of N91.3bn, 17.8% up from N77.5bn reported Q1 ‘09.
* PBT went up by 108.8% while pre-tax margin went up to 5.6% respectively.
* This strong performance is in line with our expectation and further reinforces our long term positive outlook on the company.

FY’10 Outlook:
* We anticipate a steady increase in contributions from upstream oil operations to the company’s numbers, as well as new revenue generation from its midstream business (12.15 mw independent power plant for Lagos State Water Corporation), amongst other sources.
* We have therefore reviewed our initial forecast for Oando’s top-line numbers for FY 2010 upward by 5.0%, with a revised estimate turnover of N380.2bn (US$2.5bn) and PBT of N16.1bn (US$107.0m).
* On this basis, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on Oando as we maintain a revised 12 month (ex-div) price target of N118.75 indicating a 29.2% upside potential, if marked down for the 1 for 2 bonus at the current price (N123.90).

Fidson Healthcare Plc:
Highlights:
Q3 ’10 Results:
* Fidson reported  a marginal 1.4% decrease in turnover to N4.0bn (US$26.5m).
* PBT, on the contrary, went up by an albeit marginal 1.3% to N543.1m (US$3.6m).
* Pre-tax margin remained constant at about 13.7%, indicating effective cost control measures.

FY ’10 Outlook:
* We believe that the company is positioned to take advantage of opportunities and developments in the sector, including the sustained efforts of NAFDAC in the production and distribution of counterfeit and sub-standard drugs, amongst others.
* We however have conservative FY 2010 turnover and PBT forecasts of N5.2bn (US$34.5m) and N691.9m (US$4.6m) respectively.
* We establish an ACCUMULATE recommendation based on current valuation, with a N3.80 price target, implying a 19.5% upside potential.

Afrinvest Company Earnings Update - African Petroleum Q3 2009 - SELL (282).

Meristem Company Analysis - Total Nigeria (497).

FSDH Company Analysis - Fidson Healthcare - Q2 2009 (362).

FSDH Company Analysis - Neimeth PLC - Q3 2009 (250).

FSDH Company Analysis - Northern Nigeria Flour Mills Plc - Q3 2009 (760).

Meristem Company Earnings Update - African Petroleum Plc - Q3 2009 (231).

Meristem Company Earnings Update - Ikeja Hotel Plc - Q3 2009 (210).

Vetiva Capital - March 2010 Company Update (228).

Vetiva Capital - Lafarge Cement Wapco - Q3 2009 (247).

Equity Research Report - Fidson Healthcare (339).
Equity Research Report - UPL (166).
Equity Research Report - Nigerian Breweries (338).
Equity Research Report - Nestle (566)

Valuation/Analyst Recommendation
In placing a fair value on the Ordinary Shares of NB, we adjusted our earlier forecast for the FY 2009 and parameters to reflect current market developments and its latest results. We estimated TO, Earning Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) and PAT for December, 2009. We project a TO of N166.57bn, based on a growth rate of 14.51% over the previous year. We project EBITDA of N42.51bn based on EBITDA margin of 25.52% and a PAT of N28.26bn based on a PAT Margin of 16.97%. We used 7.56bn Ordinary Shares that we expect to be in issue as at December 2009. The Forward Earnings Per Share (FEPS) generates N3.74. We estimated Dividend Per Share (DPS) of N3.36 based on a dividend payout of 90%. We note that the company already paid an interim dividend of N1.30; we therefore expect a final dividend of N2.44 to end the year. Applying Enterprise Value EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.62x, a P/E multiple of 14.50x, we arrived at N48.42 per share using EV/EBITDA multiple and N54.19 per share price using earnings multiple. Applying a weight of 55% on N48.42 and 45% on N54.19, we arrived at N51.02 which is our fair value. The forward earnings yield and dividend yield based on our fair value generate 7.33% and 6.59% respectively. We therefore maintain our HOLD on the share price of NB at the current market price.

You can also read their analysis of Nigerian Bottling Company below.
FSDH - Company Report - NBC - Q1 2009 (1125)

Also below is FSDH’s analysis of Guiness’ Q2 2008 results.

The stock is rated as a BUY at the current market price.

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Also find below Zenith’s Analysis of Access Bank.

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Here is the summary/my take-away from the report:

- AfriBank and IBTC have the highest proportion of non-performing loans (17.6% and 14%) repectively as against the perr average of 8.9%.
- Skye Bank and FCMB have the best performing loan rates of 96.8% and 94.7% as against the average of 91.1%.
- Short term loans make up over 85% of the banks’ loan portfolio.
- Deposit structure of these banks is 50% current account, 7% savings, 42% time and call deposits and the remaining other account variants.
- These banks have a sound liquidity position.
- Combined assets of these banks increased from N363bn in 2004 to N2,607bn in 2007.

Their rankings:
1. Skye Bank
2. Diamond Bank
3. EcoBank
4. Access Bank
5. Bank PHB

6. FCMB

7. Fidelity Bank

8. Stanbic IBTC

9. Afribank

Opportunities- Nigeria still has a low bank penetration rate.