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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released the Revised GDP for 2011 and estimates for 2012. The executive summary is below:
Courtesy of Afrinvest and FSH, here are the performance stats and reports for the NSE for the past week.
FSDH recently released their analysis/review of the Nigerian economy for the first half of the year and their outlook for the rest of the year.
Below is their summary. And you can read the full report below.
The National Bureau of Statistics recently released their outlook for the Nigerian economy through 2015. Here is the Executive Summary:
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN met on the 19th of September 2011 to review the current domestic and international economic and financial developments, including challenges facing the Nigerian economy in the near term. At the conclusion of the meeting, the MPC raised the benchmark rate by 50bps to 9.25% and maintained the CRR at 4.0%.
Here is an excerpts from the meeting communique:
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria met for their regular meeting on July 25th and 26th 2011. The 3 major decisions made were:
1. To tighten monetary policy by a majority decision of 10 to 2.
2. To raise the MPR by 75 basis points from 8.0 per cent to 8.75 per cent by a majority vote of 8 members in its favour, 1 member favoured 50 basispoint increase while 3 members voted for holding the MPR at 8.0 per cent.
3. To maintain the corridor at +/- 200 basis points around the MPR.
Below is the summary from the communique of the meeting:
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 25th and 26th July, 2011 to review domestic economic conditions during the first half of 2011 and the challenges facing the Nigerian economy against the backdrop of developments in the international economic and financial environment in order to chart the course of monetary policy in the second half of the year.
On the global scene, the Committee noted with concern the enormity of the challenges being faced by the US and euro zone countries as well as the major emerging market economies such as the fiscal position of Brazil, possible real estate bubbles in China and seemingly intractable inflation in India, which may impact the Nigerian economy adversely through several channels. The economic slowdown and the commodity price inflation in the international economy as well as the rapid increase in prices of some asset classes in some emerging market economies remain serious threats to the global economic recovery. There are continuing widespread threats of inflationary pressures fuelled by the sustained high energy, commodity and food prices in the global economy. Headline inflation in many of the major emerging market economies is now exceeding 6 per cent and is running close to or above central banks’ targets in a number of other larger economies.
The performance of the global financial markets was mixed. Many national currencies in Africa depreciated against the US dollar while in many emerging markets, currencies appreciated vis-à-vis the US dollar during the first half of 2011. Furthermore, most stock markets around the world showed weak recovery during the period due to high inflation, weakening consumer confidence and government finances, particularly in the US and eurozone. The unfolding debt crises in the European periphery could damage confidence and output in the near-term while the US debt and unemployment situation pose grave danger to the international economy given the reserve currency role of the US dollar and the size of the US economy. It is not unlikely that the US will lose its AAA rating and actual default is possible unless a deal can be worked out between the White house and the Congress.
On the domestic scene, the Committee noted that inflationary pressures which were traceable to the high expenditure levels associated with the April 2011 general elections as well as the effects of rising international energy, commodity and food prices had moderated by June 2011. This development was due in part to the tight monetary policy stance of the Bank since September of 2010. However, the Committee observed that the inflation outlook appears uncertain owing to the expected implementation of the new national minimum wage policy and the imminent deregulation of petroleum prices.
Significant injection of liquidity from FAAC in the third quarter coupled with the impact of AMCON recapitalizing intervened banks to the tune of N1.6 trillion will both add to inflationary pressures. The Committee welcomed the favorable growth projections but cautioned that the current security challenges, infrastructural bottlenecks and the uncertainty in the international economy as well as fiscal developments could undermine investors’ confidence and output growth in the near term.
The Committee expressed serious concerns about the continued sluggish growth of credit to the private sector during the first half of the year which is attributed, among other factors, to the heightened credit risk in the real economy as a result of the persisting structural problems occasioned by the inadequate power supply and critical infrastructure deficit. It also observed that the lending rates of deposit money banks (DMBs) remained relatively high.
You can download the full communique below:MPC JULY COMMUNIQUE NO 77 (401)
And here is the communique from the June meeting:CBN - MPC Communique No 76 Issued on May 24 2011 (394)
Before the July 25th and 26th meeting, Afrinvest, Access Bank, and Vetiva had released preview documents of the Central Bank’s decision, you can read them below:Monetary Policy Committee Decision Preview - July 2011 - Vetiva (436)
Here are excerpts from B. J. Rewane’s Monthly Economic Views and News presentation for July 2011:
- Economic expansion to continue and will be buoyed by robust non oil sector growth
- In 2011, the economy has suffered from deferred investment decisions due to political uncertainty
- GDP growth for 2011 expected to be 5.9% before increasing in 2012 to 6.2%
- Expansionary fiscal policy and higher food import prices will pose inflation threats
- Capacity expansion in key sectors to be funded mainly by debt and offshore credit
- Mainly in telecom data network expansion
- Aggressive cement capacity expansion in the building material space now targeting 20million tonnes per year
- Lafarge, Dangote and Flour Mills Nigeria fighting for market share
- Substantial Brewing industry capacity expansion and reactivation of dormant breweries
- Consolidation and growing demand in the Food and beverage sector
- Civil works and engineering for power stations, roads, bridges at both State and FGN levels
- Budget discipline and due process will be on the front burner
- The entry of Ngozi the task mistress means hold the feet of Ministers to the fire
- Deficit funding and management will be a major challenge
You can download the entire presentation below:
Below is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation by BJ Rewane at the Lagos Business School. Presentations for the prior months are also below.
LBS Executive Breakfast June 2011 (604).
LBS Executive Breakfast May 2011 (540).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 1 (555).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 2 (515).
LBS Executive Breakfast March 2011 (529).
LBS Executive Breakfast February 2011 (443)
Here are outlooks from Afrinvest and Vetiva for the Pharmaceutical, Cement and Banking sectors of the Nigerian economy for 2011:Vetiva Research - Nigerian Banking Sector Update - January 2011 (747)
FSDH Securities recently released their Economic and Financial Outlook for 2011. You can download it below.
Below are 2 speeches given by the CBN Governor at Igbinedion University and Tafawa Balewa University respectively. One is on the growth prospects of the Nigerian Economy and the other on the impact of the global financial meltdown on the Nigerian banking sector.
The minutes from the just concluded meeting of the Central Bank’s monthly Monetary Policy Committee meeting has been released. The excerpts are below:
In the light of the above considerations, the Committee is committed to maintaining price stability by pursuing the current policy thrust of monetary tightening in view of the perceived inflation risks in the near term. The Committee took the decision to further tighten monetary policy. This was a decision taken by a majority of 11:1. The following measures were approved:
1. Raise the MPR by 25 basis points from 6.25 per cent to 6.50 per cent with immediate effect (a majority vote of 11:1);
2. Maintain the symmetric corridor of +/- 200 basis points by 7-5; 4 members voted for asymmetric corridor by 50 basis points increase in Standing Deposit Facility rate;
3. Raise the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) Ratio by 100 basis points from 1.00 per cent to 2.00 per cent with effect from February 1, 2011 with a majority vote of 11:1; and
4. With effect from March 1, 2011, raise the Liquidity Ratio (LR) by 500 basis points from 25.00 per cent to 30.00 per cent with a majority vote of 11:1.</blockquote>
And you can download the full minutes below.
This blog is dedicated to informing users on the latest business and economic news news from the CBN and Nigerian Stock Exchange. Happy reading!