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Here are excerpts from B. J. Rewane’s Monthly Economic Views and News presentation for July 2011:
- Economic expansion to continue and will be buoyed by robust non oil sector growth
- In 2011, the economy has suffered from deferred investment decisions due to political uncertainty
- GDP growth for 2011 expected to be 5.9% before increasing in 2012 to 6.2%
- Expansionary fiscal policy and higher food import prices will pose inflation threats
- Capacity expansion in key sectors to be funded mainly by debt and offshore credit
- Mainly in telecom data network expansion
- Aggressive cement capacity expansion in the building material space now targeting 20million tonnes per year
- Lafarge, Dangote and Flour Mills Nigeria fighting for market share
- Substantial Brewing industry capacity expansion and reactivation of dormant breweries
- Consolidation and growing demand in the Food and beverage sector
- Civil works and engineering for power stations, roads, bridges at both State and FGN levels
- Budget discipline and due process will be on the front burner
- The entry of Ngozi the task mistress means hold the feet of Ministers to the fire
- Deficit funding and management will be a major challenge
You can download the entire presentation below:
Below is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation by BJ Rewane at the Lagos Business School. Presentations for the prior months are also below.
LBS Executive Breakfast June 2011 (596).
LBS Executive Breakfast May 2011 (533).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 1 (545).
LBS Executive Breakfast April 2011 - 2 (508).
LBS Executive Breakfast March 2011 (522).
LBS Executive Breakfast February 2011 (439)
Courtesy of the NSE, Vetiva and Proshare, here are the reports on the performance of the Nigerian Stock Exchange for the month of February.NSE Summary for February 2011 (949)
Here is Vetiva Research’s review of the economic activities for February 2011.
And here is their outlook:
Vetiva Research Feburary 2011 Monthly Economic Note (456)
We expect inflation to trend higher in the short-term thereby piling pressure on the need to continue raising interest rates. We emphasize “short-term”, as the drivers of inflation are clearer and more persuasive over this time frame. Fiscal spend in the run up to the April elections, expectations on the back of the recently approved N18,000 minimum wage, high oil prices owing to rising tensions in the MENA region and, spiking food prices on the back of adverse weather conditions are a few of the risks somewhat certain to linger up till H1’11. Our view is that these risks are short-lived, and we expect inflation will finish the year in the 10%-11% range.
The lack of clarity on the fiscal direction of the government and the anticipation of higher oil revenues have pushed ahead market expectations of the likely timing and pace of monetary policy tightening. On this assumption, we expect interest rates to edge higher gradually in reaction to the tightening measures. In addition, we anticipate there will be a more dramatic reaction as soon as the CBN’s guarantee on interbank market transactions is removed as expected in H1’11.
Without discounting the possibility of short-lived volatilities, we remain positive on the stability of the naira on the back of a steady accretion of reserves and well managed demand base. We are cautiously optimistic that the withdrawals from the Excess Crude Account (ECA) as seen in 2010 will not recur.
From all indications, oil prices are not a major risk to reserve accumulation in 2011 as prices are forecast to remain significantly above the budget benchmark. The major risk we see is the health of oil production volumes, which will depend on the outcome of the April elections. Another slightly worrying consideration is the devaluation of the US dollar which is the world’s reserve currency. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has lost 4.8% and 1.1% in the last three months, and one month respectively. There is no gainsaying that the greenback will devalue further in 2011, as the government is committed to closing its huge deficit gap. It may make sense for the CBN to actively pursue diversification of Nigeria’s reserve currency exposure.</blockquote>
Proshare has been doing a consistently good job of preparing a detailed review and analysis of the NSE every month. Here is their report for the month of October. It has a detailed breakdown of the NSE activity for the month as well as the company results reported during the month.NSE Monthly Report - Proshare NG - October 2010 (334)
And here are the official NSE reports for the month of September and October 2010NSE Activity Report For October 2010 (408)
FSDH has also released the Economic and Financial Review for Q3 2010 and their outlook for Q4. It is a very thorough and detailed report. Please take time to read it. It is worth the time.FSDH - Quarterly Economic Review - Q3 2010 (1486)
Below is the Monthly Economic News and Views presentation given by B.J Belgore for October 2010. As usual, it is a very very detailed and informative presentation. You will do well to read the entire thing.LBS Executive Breakfast Session - October 2010 (522)
Here are the monthly Economic Reports and Views presented by B.J. Rewane for May and June 2010 at the Lagos Business School. He summarizes the major events of the month and offers some analysis of these events and how they affect the economy.
Proshare and Vetiva Securities have both prepared the market reports for the March 2010 NSE performance. Happy Reading!Proshare March 2010 Report (295)
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